Market Overview for dForce/Tether (DFUSDT): Bullish Breakout with Cautious Momentum

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• Price rose from 0.01878 to 0.01926, forming a bullish reversal from a 0.01861 low, with strong volume spikes around the 0.0192–0.0193 range.
• Momentum surged in the morning (ET) with RSI reaching 62–65, but pulled back after 12:00 ET as selling pressure emerged.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight–morning session, with Bollinger Bands widening by ~45%, followed by a consolidation phase.
• A Bearish Engulfing pattern emerged at 0.01921–0.01923, hinting at potential near-term profit-taking.

The dForce/Tether (DFUSDT) pair opened at 0.01881 on October 23, 2025, and reached an intraday high of 0.01926 on October 24, closing at 0.01902 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,877,837 contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately $34,343. The pair exhibited strong volatility, particularly from 04:00 to 12:00 ET, as buyers surged ahead after a brief consolidation phase.

On the 15-minute chart, the price formed multiple key bullish formations, including a strong Bullish Engulfing pattern between 0.0188 and 0.01902 around 04:30 ET, followed by a larger engulfing pattern near 0.01915–0.01926 after 05:00 ET. These patterns were supported by surging volume and a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band. The 20-period EMA was bullish, crossing above the 50-period EMA during the morning session, while the daily chart showed the price hovering above the 100-day moving average, suggesting continued long-term optimism.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence from 04:00 to 08:00 ET, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI crossed above 50 early in the morning, reaching a peak of ~64 before rolling back toward 58 at 12:00 ET, signaling potential short-term overbought conditions. The 15-minute RSI did not yet show a full bearish divergence, but a Bearish Harami pattern at 0.01921–0.01923 may hint at a pause.

Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci

Bollinger Bands expanded during the overnight–morning session, with the price touching the upper band at 0.01926. This level corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent 0.01861–0.01906 swing, suggesting a key resistance area. The consolidation phase after 12:00 ET saw the price pull back to the 38.2% level (~0.01903), which may act as a short-term support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to a high of 449,510 contracts at 04:15 ET, coinciding with the breakout above 0.01902. Notional turnover also spiked around this time, reaching a peak of ~$8,600. However, volume declined in the late morning, suggesting reduced conviction in the current rally. The divergence between volume and price after 12:00 ET may indicate a temporary pause in the uptrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of multiple 15-minute bearish patterns (e.g., Bearish Engulfing and Bearish Harami) during the morning rally, a backtest would need to capture these signals with high precision. A suitable approach would be to adjust the holding period to match daily data: identifying each 15-minute bearish pattern and evaluating whether a short position opened at the close of the candle would profit over the course of a full day. This simplifies the data requirements and aligns with the backtest engine’s current capabilities.