Market Overview for Defi App/Tether (HOMEUSDT) – 2025-09-18

• Defi App/Tether (HOMEUSDT) rose 2.23% in 24 hours, breaking above key resistance and forming a bullish engulfing pattern around 0.0395.
• Volatility surged, with a 15-minute high of 0.04049 and a low of 0.03880, suggesting increased short-term interest.
• MACD turned positive, RSI crossed into overbought territory, and volume spiked to $48.3 million, confirming the upward thrust.
• Price remained within the upper Bollinger Band for over 6 hours, signaling high volatility and potential exhaustion.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.03973 became a key support-turned-resistance in late trading, indicating a potential pullback threshold.

HOMEUSDT opened at 0.03708 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and closed at 0.03960 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18, reaching a high of 0.04049 and a low of 0.03880. The pair traded with a total volume of ~18,130,926 and a notional turnover of approximately $72.7 million in the 24-hour period. The price action showed a strong rally from midday on 09-17 to early evening on 09-18, with a consolidation phase in the final hours of the reporting period.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 0.0395 on the 15-minute chart at 09:00–09:15 ET on 09-18, signaling strong buyer control after a correction from 0.04049. A key support level emerged at 0.0396–0.0397, which held during two separate downward retracements. A doji appeared at 17:45 ET on 09-17, suggesting indecision before the breakout. The 0.03824–0.0383 range acted as a minor support, which was decisively broken by the close of the 09-18 day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into a bullish alignment, with price closing above both. This confirmed a short-term uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MA structure indicated a bullish setup, with price trading above the 200-period MA at 0.0389, suggesting medium-term bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero at 19:30 ET, confirming bullish momentum, while the histogram showed increasing positive divergence through the night. RSI climbed above 65, entering overbought territory by 03:00 ET on 09-18, indicating short-term caution. A bearish divergence emerged between RSI and price between 07:00 and 12:00 ET, hinting at possible pullback, but buyers regained control by the close.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after the 09:00 ET candle, pushing price above the upper Bollinger Band. Price remained outside the band for over 5 hours, showing heightened volatility and a strong trend phase. The bands widened by ~3% from 19:30 ET onward, signaling a continuation of aggressive buying. The closing candle pulled back inside the upper band, but the midline of the Bollinger Band at 0.03997 offered support in the final hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout phase, peaking at 4,467,070 at 02:30 ET on 09-18, confirming strong accumulation. Notional turnover also spiked in that period, reaching ~$48.3 million. A notable divergence occurred between 07:00 and 12:00 ET, where price continued to rise while volume declined, suggesting potential exhaustion. The final 3 hours saw volume drop to below 1 million, indicating reduced conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.03973 became a key pivot in the final 6 hours of trading. It acted as a support during a 0.04038–0.03960 retracement and then as resistance during the consolidation phase. A 38.2% retracement at 0.03914 held for most of the day, with only a brief test during a midday correction. These levels suggest potential turning points for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, with a stop loss placed below the pattern's low. A take profit target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level derived from the most recent swing high and low. MACD must be above zero and trending upward to confirm the signal, while volume must show a clear increase compared to the prior 4 hours. The strategy also incorporates a trailing stop once the position is in profit, following the 20-period moving average as a dynamic support level. Initial testing on HOMEUSDT would look for a minimum of a 3% risk-reward ratio before entering, based on the prior swing structure.