Market Overview: Decentraland/Tether (MANAUSDT)

• MANA/USDT rose to a high of $0.3576 before retreating to $0.3402 at 12:00 ET, showing a volatile 24-hour range.
• Momentum accelerated in the overnight session with a bullish breakout above key resistance near $0.34, followed by consolidation.
• Volume spiked sharply during the 22:45–03:30 ET window, signaling active accumulation or distribution at critical price levels.
• RSI reached overbought conditions in the early hours but has since corrected into neutral territory.
• Price is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from a recent high, indicating potential support.

At 12:00 ET − 1, MANA/USDT opened at $0.3299 and traded within a 24-hour range of $0.3299 to $0.3576, closing at $0.3402 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 10,107,596.0 units, while notional turnover summed to $3,443,669.60. Price behavior suggests a shift in control, with bears pulling back on short-term highs and bulls attempting to stabilize at key Fibonacci levels.

Structure & Formations

Price tested and retested a key resistance at $0.3450 during the early hours, before breaking through to a high of $0.3576. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 22:45 ET as price surged from $0.3347 to $0.3404, signaling a potential reversal in sentiment. A bullish flag pattern has been forming from $0.3463 to $0.3402, with the breakout likely to target the next level near $0.3450. A notable doji formed near $0.3423 at 14:15 ET, hinting at indecision and a potential consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has closed above both the 20-period (0.3406) and 50-period (0.3412) moving averages, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. For the daily timeframe, price remains above the 50-day (0.3394) and 100-day (0.3376) averages, indicating that the intermediate trend remains positive. However, the 200-day average at $0.3360 acts as a critical long-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 01:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum. RSI peaked at 69 during the overnight session and has since corrected to 53, indicating a pullback but not yet oversold conditions. A divergence between RSI and price in the 09:00–11:00 ET window suggests caution for further bullish moves without confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 02:45–03:30 ET window, with price reaching the upper band at $0.3554. Since then, the bands have contracted slightly, signaling a possible period of consolidation. Price is currently trading within the bands and close to the upper band, suggesting that a breakout attempt may be in the works.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply around 02:45 ET and again between 03:00–03:30 ET, coinciding with the move above $0.3450. Notional turnover increased by over 150% during the 02:45–04:00 ET window, confirming the strength of the breakout. However, volume has since decreased, indicating a possible exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.3423 has acted as a strong support, with price finding a floor near that level during the 14:00–16:00 ET window. A break below this level could trigger a retest of the 38.2% level at $0.3371. On the upside, the 78.6% retracement at $0.3479 may serve as a potential resistance target in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on MANA/USDT when price closes above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the nearest support level (e.g., the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.3423). The target is set at the next resistance level (0.3479), with a time horizon of up to 48 hours. This setup aligns with recent price behavior, including the bullish engulfing pattern and breakout above key moving averages. Given the current structure, the strategy has a reasonable probability of success over the next 24 hours, provided that volume and RSI remain supportive.