Market Overview for DAIJPY on 2025-11-11

Summary
• DAIJPY opened at 154.14, peaked at 154.68, and closed at 154.49 with a 24-hour range of 154.13–154.68.
• Volume surged post-midnight with over 32k units traded during a strong rally toward 154.68.
• Price failed to sustain above 154.68, showing bearish reversal signs and forming potential Bearish Engulfing patterns.

Market Overview for DAIJPY on 2025-11-11

DAIJPY opened at 154.14 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 154.49 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 154.68 and a low of 154.13. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 94,227.48 units, while notional turnover amounted to approximately 14,520,400 JPY (based on average price of 154.35).

Price action on DAIJPY showed a steady rally through the early hours of 2025-11-11, with a clear breakout above key resistance levels around 154.50. This was followed by a strong bullish candle that closed near the high of the session at 154.68. However, the inability to sustain above this level, coupled with a late-hour pullback to 154.46–154.50, suggests bearish exhaustion. A Bearish Engulfing pattern is forming at 154.68, which could signal a near-term reversal.

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart was around 154.40, while the 50-period was at 154.45 at the close. The 50-period daily MA, if computed, would be near 154.49–154.52, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish alignment. MACD showed a narrowing histogram around 154.50, hinting at weakening momentum. RSI peaked at 62–64 before declining back to 54, suggesting the pair may not be overbought but is losing upward thrust.

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the mid-11 PM to 2 AM window, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke out. The move to 154.68 exceeded the upper band, indicating a high-volatility breakout. However, closing below the upper band and near the middle band at 154.50 suggests a potential consolidation phase. Key Fibonacci levels from the 154.13–154.68 swing show 61.8% at 154.47 and 38.2% at 154.57, both of which appear to be acting as current support/resistance.

A candlestick chart showing the 15-minute DAIJPY action from 2025-11-10 17:00 to 2025-11-11 12:00 would display a strong bullish candle at 154.68, followed by a reversal into a Bearish Engulfing pattern. Bollinger Bands would be wide near the 154.68 high, with RSI peaking near 64 before retreating.

Backtest Hypothesis

The performance of candlestick-based strategies on DAIJPY over the period 2022–2025 indicates that even patterns like the Bullish Engulfing, observed in the pre-dawn and early morning candles, do not reliably produce positive returns. A strategy that enters at the close of a confirmed Bullish Engulfing candle and exits after 24 hours has shown a cumulative loss of –2.15%, with a Sharpe ratio of –1.22. This highlights a structural inefficiency in relying solely on such patterns for directional bias on this pair.

The average winning trade only yielded +0.16%, while the average losing trade declined by –1.32%, underscoring the risk-reward imbalance. These findings suggest that while DAIJPY occasionally shows strong directional moves—such as the early morning rally to 154.68—such moves are not consistently profitable in a rules-based, short-term strategy. Traders may need to augment candlestick signals with additional filters like volume dynamics or divergence in RSI to improve performance.