Market Overview for DAIJPY (2025-09-25)

• DAIJPY traded in a tight range early before surging to 149.99, forming a strong bullish reversal pattern.
• Momentum picked up as RSI crossed 50, indicating potential follow-through on the long side.
• Volatility expanded midday with high-volume moves, especially near the 149.50–149.80 cluster.
• Price action broke above a key resistance level at 149.50, supported by increasing volume.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the upward move, suggesting renewed directional bias.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 148.90 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 149.99 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 149.99 and a low of 148.84. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 157,985.65, with a notional turnover of approximately $23,592,748.63 (assuming 1 JPY ≈ $0.0086).

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear bullish breakout from a consolidation range around 149.10–149.50 during the early hours of the session. A significant bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 149.10–149.18 level, followed by a strong move toward 149.50 and beyond. Notable resistance appeared at 149.50–149.60, but the price broke through with strong volume. A key support level at 149.00–149.10 was tested and held, offering a potential reentry point for buyers if the current rally stalls. A doji appeared near 149.16, hinting at temporary indecision.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in favor of bulls, with the price above both. The MACD showed a bullish divergence with a positive histogram and rising line, confirming the upward momentum. RSI climbed above 50 during the breakout and peaked near 65, suggesting moderate strength but not yet overbought. If RSI pushes above 70, a pullback could be expected, though the trend appears to be in place for now.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly following the breakout, especially as price approached 149.75–149.99, signaling a surge in volatility. The price closed near the upper band on the 15-minute chart, indicating strong momentum. A contraction in the bands was noted earlier in the day, suggesting a buildup of potential for a directional move. Current positioning near the upper band could be a sign of exhaustion or a continuation of the trend, depending on volume and follow-through.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 149.50–149.90 range, especially around 149.75–149.85, where large-volume candlesticks confirmed the breakout. Turnover surged alongside price, aligning with the bullish narrative. A divergence appears near 149.10, where price found support with lower volume, suggesting potential for further buying interest. High volume at key levels like 149.50 and 149.75 supports the validity of those price points as strong support-turned-resistance.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were key in shaping the price action. The 61.8% retracement level from the 148.84 low to the 149.99 high was tested at around 149.62–149.65 and held. The 50% level at 149.41 and the 38.2% level at 149.24 also saw price consolidation, offering potential entry points for longs. A move above 149.99 would target the next Fibonacci extension at 150.20–150.30. Traders may watch for a retest of the 149.60–149.65 level for confirmation of bullish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup—strong bullish momentum, key Fibonacci levels in place, and confirmed breakout through resistance—a potential backtest strategy could be designed to enter long near the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, with a stop just below the 149.00–149.10 support range. Targets would be set at the 149.75–149.99 cluster and beyond, depending on volatility expansion and volume. This approach would align with the observed trend and momentum, leveraging the breakout and confirmation seen in the 15-minute time frame.