Market Overview for DAIJPY on 2025-09-19

• DAIJPY closed marginally higher at 148.15 after a volatile 24-hour session marked by intraday swings exceeding 148.37 to 147.75.
• Key support was tested near 147.80 and held, with a potential resistance cluster forming between 148.20–148.30.
• Notable volume surges occurred during late-night recovery, suggesting accumulation ahead of the 24-hour closing.
• RSI indicates moderate overbought levels at the 1-hour close, while MACD remains bullish with positive divergence in volume.
• Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility, with price hovering near the upper band during late-day momentum.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 148.08 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 148.37, and a low of 147.75 before closing at 148.15 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was approximately 252,881.62 units, with a total notional turnover of ~$37,831,284 (assuming ¥1 = $0.008). The session featured a large bearish candle in early hours and a sharp recovery late into the Asian session.

Structure & Formations

The price structure revealed a sharp bearish swing from 148.20–147.75, followed by a strong reversal in the early Asian hours. The key support at 147.80 held twice, with the second test during the 05:15–05:30 ET period. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 05:30–06:00 ET, suggesting a short-term shift in sentiment. A morning doji formed at 08:15–08:30 ET, indicating indecision. On the daily chart, 148.15 appears as a critical resistance-turned-support level, with the 148.40 area forming as the next potential overhead resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in favor of bullish momentum during the late Asian and early European sessions. The 20SMA rose above the 50SMA as price approached 148.20, confirming a potential short-term uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are closely aligned near the 148.05–148.10 range, suggesting a consolidation phase with no clear directional bias at the moment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive during the Asian session and stayed above zero for over 4 hours, showing sustained bullish momentum. The RSI reached a 75–80 level during the 08:00–10:00 ET window, suggesting overbought conditions and potential for a pullback. However, the divergence in volume confirmed the price action, indicating accumulation rather than exhaustion. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (148.14) aligned closely with the 20SMA and provided a psychological pivot during the 15:45–16:00 ET period.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 04:00–06:00 ET window as the price recovered from the 147.75 low to the 148.25 high. Price traded near the upper band during the 06:00–08:00 ET period, indicating strong volatility and bullish participation. The contraction in the 10:00–12:00 ET period suggests a potential reversal or consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the Asian session, particularly between 05:00–08:00 ET, when the price moved from 147.75 to 148.25. The notional turnover spiked alongside the volume, confirming the price action and suggesting accumulation. A divergence in volume was observed between 10:00–12:00 ET, when the price continued higher but with lower turnover, indicating potential exhaustion and a possible reversal or pullback in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels derived from the 148.37–147.75 swing showed the 38.2% (148.14) and 61.8% (147.94) levels as key pivots during the recovery. The 38.2% level was tested multiple times and acted as a strong support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 148.40–147.80 range (around 148.10–148.15) appears to be a critical area for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA during bullish engulfing or hammer patterns, particularly in the early Asian session. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent 15-minute support level, while taking profit near the 38.2–61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels on the intra-day swing. The MACD histogram must confirm bullish momentum, and volume must surge to avoid false breakouts. This hypothesis aligns with the observed behavior on 2025-09-19, where accumulation and confirmation occurred during the 05:00–08:00 ET window.