Market Overview for Dai/Yen (DAIJPY): Mixed Momentum and Volatility

• Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) closed 0.31% higher at 146.57, with mixed momentum across 24 hours.
• Volatility surged during Asian hours, with a 1.2% intra-day swing from 146.42 to 146.90.
• Volume spiked post-ET, especially after 02:00, while turnover confirmed price action.
• No strong reversal patterns emerged; trend remains uncertain but bullish for now.
• RSI and MACD diverged slightly during the afternoon, hinting at potential pullback risk.

DAIJPY opened at 146.86 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET and closed at 146.57 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of 146.90 and a low of 146.42. Total volume reached 168,092.21, and total notional turnover hit 24,724,466.06 (based on amount × close). The pair remains within a tight range but showed significant intra-day swings.

Structure & Formations

DAIJPY experienced a moderate bearish correction during the morning, with a key support level confirmed near 146.42 and 146.51. A bullish recovery followed, with price rising above 146.75 into the early morning hours. The 146.75–146.83 range appears as a consolidation area, with a potential resistance at 146.83. A morning doji at 146.51 suggested indecision. No strong bullish or bearish engulfing patterns emerged, but price appears to be testing key psychological levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA during the early morning, signaling short-term bullish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-EMA and 200-EMA are in a tight alignment around 146.6–146.62, indicating a potential neutral or consolidation phase. Price is trading slightly above the 100-EMA, hinting at mild bullish bias, but no strong trend confirmation yet.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive after 02:00 ET, with a bullish crossover supporting the rally into 146.83. However, divergence appeared between price and the histogram after 09:00 ET, as the MACD flattened while price dipped. The RSI moved into overbought territory briefly around 146.90 but has since fallen back into neutral ground, hovering near 55. This suggests the market may be due for a minor pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the Asian session, with the bands widening as price swung from 146.42 to 146.90. Price retracted afterward and has since remained within the upper half of the bands, suggesting a continuation of the recent bullish phase. The narrowing of bands in the early morning may indicate a potential breakout attempt, but a true breakout has not yet materialized.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged between 02:00 and 04:00 ET, confirming the rally to 146.83, but dropped off during the afternoon despite price remaining elevated. Notional turnover peaked during this period and has since trended lower, suggesting waning conviction in the bullish bias. A divergence between price and volume could signal a potential reversal in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 146.42 low to the 146.90 high have seen price retest the 61.8% level (146.68) and the 38.2% level (146.55). The 50% level at 146.66 was briefly tested but rejected, indicating a potential support cluster between 146.55 and 146.62. Price has since moved above the 61.8% level, hinting at a possible continuation into 146.83 or higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the 15-minute chart’s alignment with key EMAs and the presence of Fibonacci clusters around 146.55–146.68, a potential backtesting strategy could involve placing a long entry near the 38.2% level (146.55) with a stop just below 146.45 and a target at 146.75–146.81. This setup is supported by both the MACD and RSI, which showed bullish momentum during the Asian session. If volume increases on the next rally, it would confirm conviction and suggest a continuation of the bullish phase. Conversely, a failure to break above 146.83 and a drop below 146.55 could trigger a reversal.