Market Overview: Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) Daily Price Action and Momentum Drivers

• DAIJPY opened at 148.09 and closed at 149.03, reaching a 24-hour high of 149.06.
• Price surged over 0.6% with a clear bullish bias, supported by strong volume in late ET hours.
• Volatility expanded during a sharp 15-minute rally near 149.03, aligning with key Fibonacci levels.
• RSI and MACD show rising momentum, while volume and turnover confirm the bullish thrust.
• DAIJPY appears poised to test 149.50 next, though a retest of 148.00 could bring short-covering pressure.

DAIJPY Daily Price Summary

DAIJPY opened at 148.09 on 2025-09-23 and closed at 149.03 on 2025-09-24, with an intraday high of 149.06 and a low of 147.80. The 24-hour volume totaled 152,554.46 units, with a notional turnover of $22,604,999.66 (assuming 148.00 as the average rate for estimation). The price action showed a strong upward bias, particularly after 04:30 ET, when a large bullish engulfing pattern emerged at the 148.22 level.

Structure & Key Levels

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals key support levels at 148.00 and 147.80, both of which saw consolidation or rejection before the reversal. On the upside, 148.22 acted as a breakout level, followed by a sharp push to 149.03. A notable bearish doji appeared around 148.13, suggesting hesitation before the upward move. The most recent swing high at 149.06 marks a potential near-term resistance.

Volatility and Momentum Indicators

Bollinger Bands widened during the breakout phase, indicating a shift from consolidation to a volatile rally. MACD crossed above the zero line in early ET hours and maintained a bullish divergence, with increasing volume. RSI, though not in overbought territory (peaking at 58), showed a consistent upward trend. DAIJPY may face retesting at 148.22 before attempting a push toward 149.50. A pullback to 148.00 could offer buying opportunities, though bearish divergence may emerge if volume declines.

Fibonacci and Timeframe Confluences

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key 15-minute move from 147.80 to 149.06, the 61.8% level at 148.59 was tested and surpassed. The 78.6% level near 148.84 may offer resistance before the 149.06 high. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day moving average currently sits at 148.35, offering a confluence with the Fibonacci 50% level. Price closed well above both the 20 and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, indicating strong near-term bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined focuses on identifying breakout trades on 15-minute candles that close above or below key Fibonacci levels with divergent volume and RSI. For DAIJPY, the breakout above 148.22 and subsequent move to 149.03 fit the criteria well. A strategy that enters long on a confirmed close above 148.22 with rising volume and RSI above 50 could have captured most of the rally. A trailing stop just below the 148.70 level (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement) might have allowed for profit locking while managing risk in case of a pullback. This approach may offer a high-reward-to-risk ratio in low-volatility consolidation phases, such as the one seen earlier in the session.