Market Overview for Dai/Yen (DAIJPY)

• DAIJPY opened at 152.53, reached a high of 153.16, a low of 151.81, and closed near 152.07 at 12:00 ET.
• Price consolidated after a morning spike, with key resistance at 152.60 and support near 152.00.
• Strong volume surges occurred during the 19:45–20:45 ET rally and early afternoon, but lacked follow-through.
• RSI showed overbought conditions in the morning, now neutral, with MACD confirming a bearish crossover.
• Volatility expanded during the morning high but has since contracted, with price hovering near the lower Bollinger Band.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 152.53 on October 11, 2025, at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 153.16 before consolidating into a close of 152.07 at the same time on October 12. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 189,943.36, with notional turnover reflecting significant activity, particularly during the morning surge and early afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support level forming around 152.00, where price has bounced twice in the final hours of the session. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 19:45 and 20:00 ET, signaling a potential reversal in upward momentum. A doji formed at 19:30 ET, indicating indecision after a sharp move higher. On the daily chart, DAIJPY appears to be in a consolidation phase between 151.80 and 152.65, with resistance at 152.60 and support at 151.80 becoming increasingly significant.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a bearish crossover late in the session, confirming a shift in sentiment. The 50-period MA on the daily chart continues to act as a strong resistance at 152.50, while the 200-period MA remains neutral but shows a slight downward bias, suggesting a long-term sideways to bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the morning high, confirming bearish momentum. RSI reached overbought levels in the morning (around 75) and has since cooled to mid-50s, suggesting a balanced but cautious market. No clear divergence was observed between price and RSI, though a bearish crossover in MACD late in the session reinforced caution.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the morning rally, pushing prices to the upper Bollinger Band. However, the bands have since contracted, and DAIJPY closed near the lower band, indicating a potential oversold condition. A breakout above the upper band may require a strong move past 152.65, while a break below the lower band could test 151.80.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 19:45–20:45 ET rally, with a massive trade of 24,634.464 units at 20:45 ET. This was followed by a moderate but sustained increase in volume during the afternoon. Notional turnover confirmed the bullish activity in the morning and bearish confirmation in the late afternoon. However, volume during the post-lunch dip was relatively weak, suggesting limited conviction in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 152.65 high was followed by a retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 152.18, which held briefly before a further pullback to 152.01. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement level from the recent swing high lies around 152.42, which was tested and rejected in the late morning. A break of 152.00 could see price retrace to 151.86 or 151.75 on a continuation of the current bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed structure, a backtesting strategy could be designed to capture short-term directional moves using the 20-period MA as a trigger and Fibonacci retracements as key levels for entry and stop placement. A potential approach would be to enter short positions when price closes below the 20-period MA after forming a bearish engulfing pattern and a doji, with a stop just above the 152.60 resistance level. Profit targets could be aligned with the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart. This strategy would aim to leverage both trend and momentum signals observed in the data.