Market Overview for Dai/Yen (DAIJPY)

• Price dipped below key support at 149.81, with volume surging during the breakdown.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the early morning session, signaling potential bear momentum.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting a possible short-term bounce ahead.
• Volatility expanded after 17:30 ET, with a 0.13 Yen range between high and low.
• DAIJPY closed at 149.82, near the session low, amid uneven volume distribution.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-27, Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 149.76, hit a high of 149.86, a low of 149.72, and closed at 149.82. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 81,216.13 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 12,161,655.50 JPY. The session featured a sharp bearish reversal in the early hours, followed by consolidation and moderate volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish engulfing pattern around 19:00–19:30 ET as the pair fell from 149.83 to 149.72. This pattern was confirmed with high volume, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A doji formed at 03:15 ET, signaling indecision and potential support at 149.81. Key support levels appear to be forming around 149.72–149.76, while resistance clusters at 149.82–149.86. A break below 149.72 could open the door to a test of 149.61.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both dipped below the current close of 149.82, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA stands at 149.84, and the 20-period MA at 149.86, both above the price. While not in a strong downtrend, the pair appears to be trending sideways to slightly bearish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the bearish reversal, forming a bearish crossover. RSI fell to 33 by 04:00 ET, reaching near-oversold levels, hinting at potential for a rebound. However, this oversold bounce should not be interpreted as a reversal without confirmation via price action and volume.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded notably after 17:30 ET, with the bands widening from 0.05 to 0.10 Yen. Price spent most of the session near the lower band, with a brief touch at the upper band during the 21:30–23:30 ET period. The current close of 149.82 resides slightly above the middle Bollinger band (149.81), indicating mild bearish pressure but no breakout confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish move between 17:30–19:30 ET, peaking at 5890.887 units, with strong notional turnover aligning with the price drop. Volume then declined significantly during the consolidation phase, suggesting fading bear momentum. A divergence between price and volume is noticeable in the late hours, as price continued to fall while volume dropped. This may indicate a weakening trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the most recent 15-minute swing (149.72–149.86), key retracement levels at 38.2% (149.78) and 61.8% (149.81) appear to act as immediate resistance and support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level at 149.72 is a critical support zone. A break below this level may trigger further downside toward 149.61.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on the confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern with a volume increase of over 2x the prior candle. A stop-loss is placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level (149.78), with a target at 149.72. RSI levels below 30 can be used to filter entries and reduce false signals. This approach aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI conditions seen in the recent session.