Market Overview: DAI/Yen (DAIJPY) 24-Hour Technical Report

Summary
• DAIJPY opened at 154.58, peaked at 155.12, and closed at 154.98 with a 24-hour volume of 114,101.35 JPY.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged post-17:00 ET as price pushed through 154.75–154.85 resistance.
• Volatility expanded during late-night hours, with price fluctuating between 154.71 and 155.12.

DAIJPY opened at 154.58 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 154.98 on 2025-11-14 at the same time, reaching a high of 155.12 and a low of 154.58 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 114,101.35 JPY, with turnover indicating robust engagement across key price levels.

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a strong push above 154.75–154.85 in the late evening, followed by a consolidation phase in the early hours of the morning. A bullish continuation appears likely with support at 154.71 and resistance near 155.05–155.12. A bearish reversal could occur if volume wanes near these levels, but for now, the trend looks to be intact.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels are at 154.71 and 154.85, while 155.05–155.12 marks critical resistance. A small bearish engulfing pattern appeared briefly at 05:45 ET, but it failed to confirm a reversal. A larger bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:45 ET, signaling a breakout from a narrow trading range. A doji near 154.95 suggests indecision and could act as a pivot point in the coming 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the late evening, confirming bullish momentum. The 50-period MA now acts as a dynamic support at ~154.86. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at ~154.88, slightly below current price, suggesting short-term strength.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 19:45 ET and remained bullish through the overnight session. RSI reached 61–63 during the breakout phase, indicating moderate bullish momentum, though not overbought. A dip to ~48 in the early hours of the morning suggests a brief pullback, but not a bearish shift.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after 19:45 ET, with price pushing out of a narrow band and settling near the upper band at 155.05–155.12. A contraction occurred briefly after the doji at 05:45 ET, suggesting a potential reversal point. Price remains comfortably within the bands, with no signs of an imminent breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 22:45 ET and again at 00:00 ET (next day), coinciding with price increases. Notable divergence occurred at 02:45 ET, where volume dropped despite a slight price rise, indicating weak conviction. Total turnover reached ~JPY 114,101.35, with the largest trades occurring near key support and resistance levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 154.71 to 155.12, the 38.2% level is at ~154.89 and the 61.8% level is at ~154.97, both of which have been tested and held. On the daily chart, retracements suggest a potential pullback target at ~154.82 if the 155.12 level fails.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of a direct DAIJPY instrument, a synthetic reconstruction via DAI-USD and USD-JPY rates could offer valuable insights. A backtest could assess how well the synthetic DAIJPY series captures the observed patterns, such as the bullish engulfing at 19:45 ET and the doji at 05:45 ET. Testing for Bullish Engulfing signals on the synthetic data might help confirm the robustness of the breakout and its potential for a successful trade setup.