Market Overview for Dai/Yen (DAIJPY): 24-Hour Performance and Technical Insights

• DAIJPY rallied to a 24-hour high of 148.38 before retracing, showing strong bullish momentum and volatility expansion.
• Price found key support around 147.01–147.09 and formed potential bullish continuation patterns in early morning sessions.
• High-volume surges occurred around 08:30–09:00 ET and midday, aligning with price breakouts and confirming bullish sentiment.
• RSI approached overbought territory late in the session, suggesting short-term exhaustion and possible consolidation.
• MACD remained positive but narrowing, indicating momentum slowdown as the 24-hour window closed.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 146.55 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, climbed to a high of 148.38, and closed at 148.07 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total trading volume reached 52,666.97 units with a notional turnover of $7,634,778.90, reflecting heightened market participation and directional bias.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a clear bullish trend with multiple higher highs and higher lows on the 15-minute chart. Key resistance levels were identified near 147.56 and 148.14, both of which were successfully tested and confirmed. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 08:30–08:45 ET, followed by a continuation pattern as price pushed toward 148.38. A doji formed near 147.07, signaling indecision at a critical support level, but buyers regained control shortly after.

Support and Resistance Levels (15-Min Chart)

Supports: 147.01–147.09, 146.96–147.01
Resistances: 147.54–147.63, 148.12–148.17

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover, confirming the upward bias. Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate expansion during the 08:00–10:00 ET window, indicating increased volatility. Price moved above the upper band during the 13:45–14:00 ET period, suggesting a potential continuation of the rally, but later retracted slightly, testing the mid-band as support.

Momentum and Overbought Conditions

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 70+ during the 13:45–14:30 ET window, indicating overbought conditions and a possible pullback. The MACD histogram remained positive but began to contract toward the end of the 24-hour window, signaling a potential slowdown in upward momentum. This divergence between price and momentum indicators could lead to a short-term correction, especially if the 147.54 level is retested.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Trading volume surged significantly during two key windows: 08:30–09:00 ET and 12:45–14:00 ET. These spikes coincided with price breakouts and continued upward momentum, suggesting strong accumulation. Notional turnover also peaked during these periods, with the 08:30–09:00 ET window accounting for over $1.1 million in value traded. A divergence between volume and price movement was observed near the close, as volume dipped despite price reaching a 24-hour high—suggesting possible exhaustion or profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute rally from 146.55 to 148.31, the 61.8% level sits at 147.59 and was successfully tested and held. The 38.2% level at 147.93 was also a key price pause point earlier in the session. On the daily chart, retracements from the previous week’s low to the current high point to potential consolidation zones around 147.36 and 148.14. These levels may act as critical decision points for the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using a bullish engulfing candle pattern on the 15-minute chart as an entry signal, with a stop-loss placed below the prior swing low and a take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci resistance level. Given today’s performance, this pattern emerged around 08:30–08:45 ET and could have generated a profitable short-term trade if followed by a 10-minute confirmation bar. This approach aligns with the observed MACD and RSI momentum and could be validated over historical data for robustness and consistency.