Market Overview: Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• DAIJPY broke above a key resistance level near 152.00 on elevated volume, suggesting bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as the price surged from 151.75 to 152.28 during a 4.5-hour rally, with strong accumulation observed.
• RSI approached overbought levels while MACD turned positive, indicating potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting heightened uncertainty and increased sensitivity to news or order flow.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed after a deep sell-off, signaling a reversal in sentiment from bearish to cautiously bullish.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 151.94 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between 151.75 and 152.28 over the next 24 hours, closing at 152.12 by 12:00 ET. The total 15-minute candle volume was 307,219.90, with a total notional turnover of ¥46,548,614.73. The pair displayed a strong reversal narrative from bearish to bullish momentum as volume surged during key breakout periods.

Structure & Formations

The price action of DAIJPY over the last 24 hours suggests a clear bullish reversal pattern, particularly after a deep 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 151.75 was tested. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed in the 151.75 to 152.06 range, following a sharp intraday selloff. This pattern, combined with a retest of the 151.84 level, indicates strong accumulation and a potential short-term base formation. Key resistances identified include 152.06 and 152.28, while critical support levels include 151.94 and 151.75. A doji formed near 151.94 in the early hours, signaling indecision before the rally resumed.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in a golden cross around 19:30 ET–1, reinforcing the bullish reversal. The MACD histogram turned positive in the final hours, confirming upward momentum. However, RSI approached overbought territory, peaking at 62, suggesting a potential near-term pullback. Daily moving averages are not fully actionable due to the limited dataset, but the 50-period line sits just below the current price, supporting the bullish case.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as the pair moved from 151.75 to 152.28, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty in the market. Price spent a large portion of the day outside the upper band, suggesting strong buying pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels from the prior swing low at 151.75 and high at 152.28 show that the price tested key 38.2% and 61.8% levels during its consolidation phase, aligning with the bullish engulfing pattern observed.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the 22:00 to 06:00 ET–1 period, particularly as the price broke above 152.06 and 152.18. Notional turnover was also elevated during this window, confirming the strength of the breakout. However, during the 07:00 to 09:00 ET window, volume declined while the price continued upward, indicating a potential divergence. This could suggest that the buying pressure is starting to wane and the pair may consolidate or face profit-taking.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup observed—including the golden cross, bullish engulfing pattern, and overbought RSI—a MACD-based trading strategy could be validated through backtesting. To proceed, we need to confirm a valid exchange ticker for DAIJPY. Options include using “DAI/JPY” as a direct quote or deriving a synthetic DAI/JPY rate from DAI/USD and JPY/USD pairs. Once the correct symbol is identified or the MACD Golden-Cross dates are provided, a seven-day-hold backtest can be conducted from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-22 to evaluate the strategy’s viability.

Over the next 24 hours, DAIJPY is likely to test the 152.28 resistance level amid moderate volatility. While the bullish bias remains intact, overbought RSI and divergent volume suggest caution. Traders should monitor for potential pullbacks toward the 152.06–152.10 range and watch for order flow confirmation at key levels. Risk remains on the downside if support at 151.94 is breached, which could trigger a retest of the 151.75 level.