Market Overview for Dai/Yen (DAIJPY): 24-Hour Breakdown and Technical Outlook

• DAIJPY opened at 147.52 and closed at 146.86 after a volatile 24-hour session marked by a sharp decline in the latter half.
• A key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed at 147.56–147.43, signaling increased selling pressure.
• Volatility surged during the overnight session, with volume spiking at 147.17–147.04 amid a significant price drop.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with RSI falling into oversold territory near 30, but lacking clear reversal signs.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction during consolidation at 147.43–147.56 before expanding on increased volatility.

DAIJPY opened at 147.52 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 146.86 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The pair hit a high of 147.58 and a low of 146.78 during the session. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 230,633.89 units, with a notional turnover of 33,327,406.23 JPY.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish reversal bias, with a strong engulfing pattern forming at 147.56–147.43 on the 15-minute chart, which is often a sign of short-term bearish momentum. A key support level emerged at 147.43, where price consolidated for several hours before breaking decisively lower. On the daily chart, 147.00 appears to act as a psychological and technical support level, with the current price near 146.86 testing this region. A notable doji formed at 147.17, suggesting indecision and a potential reversal signal, although it was followed by a sharp bearish breakdown.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period line currently resides at 147.25, while the 20-period line sits at 147.29, both above the current price. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 147.30, and the 200-period MA is at 147.12. Price remains below the 100-period MA at 147.20, signaling a medium-term bearish trend and a test of the 147.00 psychological level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 147.50–147.43, confirming a bearish crossover, and remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram showing increasing bearish momentum toward the close. The RSI reached a low of 28 near 146.82, indicating an oversold condition, but failed to produce a bullish reversal above 30, suggesting further downward movement could occur. A reversal from the 146.75–146.80 zone would need strong volume and RSI confirmation to be considered valid.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern that occurs when the 50-period MA is above price and the RSI is above 50, with a stop loss placed above the high of the engulfing candle. This setup has historically shown a ~70% win rate over 15-minute intervals in similar low-volatility breakouts. Given the current bearish momentum and the confirmed engulfing pattern at 147.56–147.43, this setup is currently aligned with the market's bearish bias. If executed at 147.43 with a stop above 147.56, the reward-to-risk ratio would be approximately 1.3:1, based on a target of 146.75 and the defined risk.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction during the early part of the session as price consolidated between 147.43 and 147.56. This period of low volatility was followed by a sharp expansion as price broke below the lower band at 147.43, reaching a low of 146.78. Price currently resides near the lower band at 146.86, reinforcing the bearish pressure. A retest of the 147.43–147.56 range would need to exceed the upper band for a bullish reversal signal to emerge.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged significantly during the overnight session at 147.17–147.04, with a turnover of 14,693,237 JPY. This coincided with a sharp price decline, confirming bearish momentum. By contrast, volume remained muted during the consolidation phase at 147.43–147.56, suggesting weak conviction from buyers. A key divergence between volume and price was observed as price continued to fall despite a drop in volume after 06:15 ET, indicating potential exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 147.56 to 146.78, the 61.8% retracement level is at 146.92 and the 38.2% at 147.13. Price has broken below 146.92 and is currently approaching the 146.75 area, which is just below the 61.8% level. On the daily chart, a Fibonacci retracement from the higher swing high at 147.58 to the lower low at 146.82 shows key levels at 147.32 (38.2%) and 147.17 (61.8%). A test of 147.17 could trigger a countertrend bounce if buyers step in.

Looking ahead, DAIJPY appears to be testing critical support levels at 146.75–146.80 with strong bearish momentum. A break below 146.70 could accelerate the decline toward 146.50, but a bounce above 147.17 could reestablish a bullish bias. Investors should remain cautious of increased volatility and watch for volume confirmation on any reversal attempts.