Market Overview for Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• DAIJPY opened at 154.63, reaching a high of 154.67 and a low of 154.13 before closing at 154.13.
• Strong bearish momentum was evident with RSI dropping into oversold territory, suggesting exhaustion in the downward move.
• A large-volume candle on 00:00 ET and a 6:15 ET reversal indicated key turning points.

Market Overview for Dai/Yen (DAIJPY)

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 154.63 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 154.67, a low of 154.13, and closing at 154.13 on 2025-11-06 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 63,884.04 and turnover amounted to 9,736,023.85 JPY. Price action showed a bearish bias early in the session, with a key reversal forming around 05:00–06:00 ET.

The structure of the candlestick pattern indicated strong bearish control, especially in the first few hours, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming around 00:00–00:15 ET. A doji appeared at 03:15 ET, hinting at indecision and potential for reversal. Key support appears near the 154.13–154.15 range, with resistance forming at 154.28 and 154.40 based on retracement levels and recent failed attempts to rally.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearishly aligned, with price consistently below both. The 50-period MA was at ~154.42 and the 20-period at ~154.47. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at ~154.50, with the 200-period MA at ~154.35, suggesting a short-term bearish bias amid long-term sideways consolidation.

MACD showed bearish divergence with negative momentum, reinforcing the downward trend. RSI dropped to 29 by 05:00 ET, entering oversold territory, and remained there until the end of the session. However, a failure to rebound above 30 may signal further weakness ahead.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the early hours of the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening as price dropped from 154.42 to 154.13. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce from the 154.13–154.15 area. However, the absence of a strong bullish reversal pattern increases the likelihood of continued bearish pressure in the near term.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume was highly concentrated in the 00:00–01:00 ET window, with a massive 31,300.431 volume candle driving the decline from 154.36 to 154.30. This suggests strong bearish conviction. Turnover confirmed the volume spikes, particularly around the 00:00 and 02:00 ET candles. A divergence between declining price and stable volume after 04:00 ET may indicate a weakening bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key retracement levels were drawn from the 154.67 high to the 154.13 low. The 61.8% retracement level is at 154.30, which was briefly tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels lie at ~154.40 and 154.50 respectively, both acting as key psychological resistance levels for a potential reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI Oversold 3-Day Hold strategy, as demonstrated with SPY, highlights that RSI levels in oversold conditions may offer limited but consistent short-term opportunities. Applied to DAIJPY, a similar approach could potentially capture the rebound expected from the 154.13–154.15 area. However, the current bearish momentum and lack of a bullish reversal pattern suggest a cautious approach. The strategy may benefit from a time-based exit rather than strict RSI-based triggers in the current environment.