Market Overview for Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) on 2025-12-16

Summary
• Price tested key support levels, forming bearish engulfing patterns and a long-legged doji in the 5-minute chart.
• Volatility expanded significantly with a sharp drop to 154.80, while volume spiked over 118k, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 30, suggesting possible short-term rebounds, but MACD remained negative with bearish divergence.
• DAIJPY closed lower within the lower Bollinger Band, indicating continued bearish pressure and weak price recovery attempts.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 155.02 and 155.31 appear to offer near-term resistance amid declining turnover and fading bullish conviction.

Dai/Yen (DAIJPY) opened at 155.5 on 2025-12-15, reaching a high of 155.59 before closing at 155.16 on 2025-12-16. The pair traded as low as 154.78, with total volume of 513,078.79 and turnover of 79,663,322.82.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed bearish dominance with a large bearish engulfing pattern and a

doji near the daily close. Key support levels were tested at 154.80 and 155.02, with 155.15 offering a potential short-term floor.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 5-minute chart crossed bearishly, reinforcing downward bias. Daily 50/100/200 EMAs are aligned bearish, suggesting further tests of prior support are likely.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover, while RSI reached oversold levels near 30, hinting at short-term rebound potential. However, divergence between RSI and price suggests bearish exhaustion may not yet be complete.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the sharp drop, pushing price to the lower Bollinger Band. A retest of the 154.78 low appears likely, with a potential bounce toward the mid-band at 155.16 expected to face resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown to 154.80, with a peak of 118,673.078 at 09:15 ET. Turnover confirmed the move, but volume has since declined, signaling waning bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels of 155.02 (38.2%) and 155.31 (61.8%) appear to be near-term resistance. A break above 155.48 could signal a shift in momentum.

Looking ahead, a test of the 154.78 low may trigger a rebound to 155.15–155.31, but risks remain skewed to the downside unless bullish volume increases significantly. Investors should be cautious of short-term volatility and potential false breaks.