Market Overview for Dai (DAIJPY): Volatility and Weakness in 24-Hour Session

• DAIJPY traded in a narrow range early before breaking lower, closing near session lows.
• Key support tested at 148.05–148.44 with moderate volume, suggesting potential for a bounce or breakdown.
• Momentum indicators show weakening bullish pressure, with RSI near oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with price falling below the 20-period moving average.
• High-volume candle at 148.44–148.52 could signal a potential pivot point for near-term direction.

Dai (DAIJPY) opened at 148.87 on July 20 at 16:00 ET and traded as high as 149.13 before declining to a low of 148.05, closing at 148.54 at 12:00 ET on July 21. Total trading volume reached 602,828.365 units, with notional turnover amounting to 88,745,712.55 JPY over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The session saw a series of lower highs and lower lows from 19:45 ET onward, forming a bearish descending pattern. A significant bearish engulfing candle occurred at 20:00–20:15 ET, confirming a breakdown from a prior consolidation range. Key support levels were tested at 148.05 and 148.44, with a hammer-like reversal candle forming at 22:30–22:45 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period moving average (around 148.7–148.8), reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period line also dipped below the prior range, indicating continued bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits slightly above the 100-period MA, suggesting a neutral to mildly bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the latter half of the session, with the histogram shrinking as bearish momentum waned. RSI fell into oversold territory near 30 by the close, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI divergence from price suggests caution, as buyers have yet to show consistent strength.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded mid-session, with the bands widening after a period of contraction. Price closed near the lower Bollinger band, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. However, the lack of a strong reversal signal raises the risk of a breakdown below the current support range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key breakdown candle at 20:00–20:15 ET, with 163,683.594 units traded. The highest turnover occurred during the same period, aligning with the price decline. A divergence is visible in the second half of the session, as volume dropped despite continued price weakness, suggesting fading bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from 148.05 to 149.13, the 61.8% retracement level is around 148.45–148.55. Price closed near this level, suggesting potential for consolidation or a test of the 50% retracement at 148.65. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 149.13 to the low of 148.05 suggest a possible pivot near 148.50.

Looking ahead, DAIJPY may test the 148.05–148.44 support range in the next 24 hours, with a breakdown potentially targeting 147.90. A rejection here could trigger a bounce toward 148.65–148.75. Investors should remain cautious of thin volume and divergences, which may limit the strength of any near-term reversal.