Market Overview for Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT)

Summary
• Price surged to $0.5444 before retreating to $0.5141, forming a bearish correction.
• Volatility spiked during the 22:45–23:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp price drop.
• High turnover confirmed the intraday range, with volume exceeding 3.6 million.
• RSI hit overbought levels early, followed by a bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as price moved toward the upper band before reversing.

Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) opened at $0.4843 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.5444, and closed at $0.5141 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. Total 24-hour volume reached 22,934,610.8 and turnover amounted to approximately $11,608,010. The pair exhibited a volatile intraday range, with price action suggesting short-term speculative interest and potential exhaustion in bullish momentum.

Structure and Formations
Price formed a series of bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, particularly in the 22:00–23:00 ET range, suggesting indecision and momentum shifts. A notable bearish reversal occurred around the 22:45 ET candle, where price gapped down from the day's high to near the mid-range. Key support levels were identified at $0.5017 and $0.4932, while resistance levels held near $0.5185 and $0.5269. A doji formed at 05:30 ET, signaling a potential pause in bearish momentum.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA in the early hours, signaling a brief bullish crossover. However, this was quickly invalidated as the 20 SMA dipped back below the 50 SMA by mid-day. The 50-period SMA, at $0.5045, acted as a dynamic resistance for the majority of the session. On the daily timeframe, the 50 SMA at $0.5012 and 200 SMA at $0.4987 suggested the pair is consolidating above its long-term support.

MACD & RSI
The 12-26 MACD crossed into positive territory early in the session, aligning with the initial bullish move. However, the histogram began to contract by 22:00 ET, indicating waning momentum. RSI hit an overbought level of 76.5 by 22:15 ET, followed by a bearish divergence as price advanced but RSI pulled back. RSI closed at 60.3, indicating moderate neutrality but suggesting that the pair may consolidate near the mid-range over the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply as the pair surged from $0.49 to $0.5444 within a few hours, pushing price toward the upper band. This expansion often precedes a contraction and potential correction, which was observed in the 22:45–23:00 ET window. The narrowing of the bands in the late hours of the session suggests a potential setup for a breakout or a continuation of the current bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked to over 3.6 million at 22:45 ET, coinciding with the largest price drop of the session. This suggests strong short-term selling pressure. Turnover confirmed the price decline with a sharp increase in notional value traded during the same period. A divergence appeared in the final hours as volume declined while price continued to trend lower, hinting at possible exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements
Applying Fibonacci levels to the 22:00–23:00 ET swing identified key retracement levels at 61.8% (~$0.5180) and 38.2% (~$0.5286). Price found support at the 61.8% retracement level, which coincided with the 50-period SMA. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from the recent high remains near $0.5280, a potential area for retesting in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis
An additional strategy can be evaluated using a backtest based on RSI signals. The backtest, spanning from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11, opens a short position when the 14-day RSI crosses above 70 (overbought) and closes it at the next day’s close. This fixed-holding approach eliminates the need for complex stop-loss or take-profit rules. By aligning this strategy with today's overbought RSI levels, the potential for a short-term bearish trade is reinforced. The embedded tool allows investors to review total return, hit ratio, average P/L, and max drawdowns directly, with further parameters tweakable for enhanced risk-adjusted performance.