Market Overview for Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT)

Summary

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of $0.4407 to $0.4152, with a final close near $0.4210.
• Volume surged during the bearish move in the early hours of ET, confirming bearish momentum.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and MACD signals potential for further downside in the near term.

Market Overview for Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT)

Curve DAO Token (CRV) against Tether (USDT) opened at $0.4284 on 2025-11-03 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4210 by 2025-11-04 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.4407 and a low of $0.4131. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was approximately 48,385,254 USDT, with a notable increase during the downward price action in the early morning hours (ET).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart of CRVUSDT exhibited a distinct bearish trend over the 24-hour period, particularly from 05:30 to 06:45 ET, where the price dropped from $0.4293 to $0.41. A potential support level appears to form around $0.4130–$0.4140, as the price bounced off this level twice. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared on the 15-minute candles during the early hours of ET, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. No strong bullish candlestick patterns were observed, but a doji appeared near $0.4200, hinting at indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearishly aligned, with the 20-EMA crossing below the 50-EMA in the early hours of the session, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines were all in a bearish configuration, with the price currently below all three, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend could be likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator showed a bearish divergence around 05:30–06:30 ET, as the price made a lower high while the MACD failed to confirm with a higher high. The RSI reached oversold levels around $0.4140 but failed to generate a meaningful bounce, suggesting the bears may still be in control. The RSI closed the 24-hour period near 35, indicating neutral to mildly oversold conditions, but with no clear reversal signal yet.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the bearish move, with the price falling well below the lower Bollinger Band. This expansion confirmed the increased selling pressure and could suggest a period of consolidation ahead as the price stabilizes near the key support zone. The current price appears to be trading near the lower boundary of the bands, suggesting potential for a bounce if short-term support holds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early hours of the session (ET), especially between 05:30 and 06:45, coinciding with the sharp drop in price. This volume increase provided confirmation of the bearish move. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, with the largest 15-minute turnover occurring at 05:45 ET when the price dropped from $0.4213 to $0.4162 on a volume of 1,927,743 USDT. No significant divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting the bearish momentum was genuine.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.4407 to $0.4131, the 61.8% level is at $0.4204, which the price has recently tested. A break below $0.4197 could see the price testing the 78.6% level at $0.4158. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of a larger swing could offer temporary support or resistance, but the bearish trend remains intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

A meaningful backtest could be designed to test a short-bias strategy based on bearish MACD divergences, as identified in the 15-minute CRVUSDT data. A potential exit rule could be closing the short at the next bullish MACD crossover, or alternatively, using a fixed stop-loss of 2% above the entry price and a take-profit of 4% below, providing a risk-reward ratio of 2:1. This would allow testing the effectiveness of using MACD divergences as an early bearish signal within the high-frequency 15-minute timeframe.