Market Overview for Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-10-04

• Price opened at 0.7625, rallied to 0.8004, and closed at 0.7714 — a 24-hour range of ~4.8%.
• Momentum shifted multiple times, with RSI dipping below 30 twice, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded during early hours but gradually contracted, reflecting cautious trading.
• Volume surged to ~1.85M during a key rally but diminished as the pair approached 0.7700–0.7730.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.786–0.780, hinting at a potential reversal.

The pair opened at 0.7625 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and closed at 0.7714 the following day. In that window, it reached a high of 0.8004 and a low of 0.7612. Total volume traded was 13,890,706.9, with a notional turnover of approximately $10,761,185 (based on average close of ~0.776).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a key support cluster forming between 0.767 and 0.771, with multiple candles closing within this range. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred between 16:15 and 17:15 ET, as a long bullish candle at 0.7894 was followed by a larger bearish candle closing at 0.7856. This suggests a shift in sentiment from bullish to cautious. A bullish morning star pattern emerged around 08:15–09:15 ET, indicating potential buying pressure. However, the failure to follow through above 0.780–0.782 weakens its strength.

Moving Averages

Using 20- and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA multiple times, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, these crosses did not result in sustained follow-through above 0.780. The daily 50- and 200-period SMAs show a bearish crossover, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. As of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, the price closed near the 50SMA on the daily chart, which may offer temporary support or resistance depending on future price action.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed the signal line twice during the 24-hour period, indicating short-term bullish momentum during the rally from 0.765 to 0.8004. However, the histogram started to contract as the price approached the 0.780–0.785 range, signaling weakening bullish momentum. RSI oscillated between 30 and 70 most of the time, but dipped below 30 at 00:30 and 01:30 ET, suggesting oversold conditions. It failed to rise above 50 consistently after 06:00 ET, indicating a loss of bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20- and 50SMA crossover on the 15-minute chart in conjunction with RSI dips below 30. Long entries could be triggered when the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA and RSI dips below 30, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent support level. Exit triggers could involve a 5% trailing stop or a close below the 50SMA. This strategy would align well with the observed structure and momentum shifts in the past 24 hours, particularly around the 08:15–09:15 ET and 19:30–20:45 ET timeframes. Given the bearish bias on the daily chart, this approach would ideally be used in short-term countertrend trades rather than as a longer-term directional strategy.

Bollinger Bands

The price experienced a volatility expansion from 16:00–18:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening as the pair surged toward 0.8004. After this, the bands gradually constricted, indicating a period of consolidation. The price closed near the middle band at 0.7714, suggesting a neutral sentiment. A contraction in the bands following an expansion could be seen as a prelude to a breakout or breakdown in the near future.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 16:00–17:00 ET rally, with over 3.1 million units traded, and again around 08:15–09:15 ET. However, the price did not continue to rise following these high-volume periods, which may indicate a divergence. Notional turnover was highest during the 16:00–17:00 ET rally, with a turnover of over $2.3 million, and again during the 08:15–09:15 ET bounce. Turnover appears to confirm the morning rally but failed to confirm the afternoon high of 0.8004, suggesting caution ahead of the 0.780–0.785 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from 0.7612 to 0.8004, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels correspond to 0.7773 and 0.7705, respectively. The price bounced off the 0.7705–0.7715 range multiple times during the day, indicating a potential zone of interest for near-term support. The 23.6% retracement level was at ~0.7930, and the price briefly tested this level before retracing.

Looking ahead, the pair appears to be consolidating between 0.767 and 0.773, with the RSI and MACD both showing signs of weakening bullish momentum. A break below 0.767 could trigger a test of the 0.761–0.763 support cluster, but a rebound within the 0.767–0.773 range could see a short-term bounce. Traders should remain cautious, as the daily chart shows a bearish bias and the 0.773–0.775 level may offer resistance ahead.