Market Overview for Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) – 2025-10-11

• Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) traded between 0.6812 and 0.7090 over 24 hours, closing below the open with heavy selling pressure after 19:30 ET.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and MACD signals oversold conditions after a sharp drop to 0.6812 and recovery into 0.52–0.55 range.
• Volatility expanded significantly post-19:30 ET, with turnover surging due to a massive candle closing at 0.6316.
• Bollinger Bands widened and price tested lower support levels multiple times, with failed rebounds indicating bearish momentum.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest critical levels at 0.517 and 0.493 for potential support, and 0.533 for resistance in the near term.

CRVUSDT opened at 0.6986 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.7090, and dropped to a low of 0.6812 before closing at 0.5227 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded on a total volume of 134,387,216.7 and a turnover of $69,603,513.70 over the 24-hour period. Price action showed strong bearish momentum after 19:30 ET, with a massive 15-minute candle closing at 0.6316 and signaling a sharp shift in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a long-legged doji around 20:00–21:00 ET as the price plummeted. A key support level at 0.6812 was tested twice with failed bounces, suggesting exhaustion among buyers. Resistance levels at 0.6932 and 0.7090 also failed to hold, leading to a broad bearish wave. A potential key support at 0.5235–0.517 appears to be forming as price consolidates in that range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period SMA crossed below the 20-period SMA multiple times during the 24-hour period, signaling a potential bearish crossover. For the daily chart, the 200-period SMA (not directly observable from input) would be critical for longer-term support, while the 50 and 100-period moving averages may now be forming a bearish alignment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 19:30 ET and remained in bearish territory, with a large negative histogram during the selloff. RSI reached 13.5 at 20:00–20:30 ET, indicating oversold conditions, though the rebound failed to confirm a strong bounce. The RSI remains in oversold territory but without a clear reversal pattern, suggesting the bearish momentum may continue unless a strong bullish reversal forms.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price moved toward the lower band during the selloff, with a 15-minute candle at 19:30 ET closing far below the band. This wide expansion indicates heightened volatility and potential for either continuation or reversal. The current price is near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting bearish continuation unless a strong rally forms and closes above the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred at 19:30 ET with a candle volume of 14,438,345, coinciding with a massive price drop from 0.694 to 0.6316. This suggests a large sell-off likely triggered by algorithmic or institutional activity. While volume decreased after that, the overall trend remains bearish with consistent selling pressure. Turnover aligned with volume, confirming the strength of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.7090–0.6812 swing, key support levels at 0.6986 (23.6%), 0.6932 (38.2%), and 0.6875 (50%) were tested, but failed to hold. On the 0.6812–0.6316 leg, the 0.6483 (38.2%) and 0.6312 (61.8%) levels provided some support. The current price near 0.5235–0.517 could form a new key area for Fibonacci-based retracements, with 0.5473 (23.6%) and 0.5739 (38.2%) as potential resistance levels ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could evaluate a long-biased strategy entering on a bullish engulfing pattern or a RSI bounce above 30 with a stop-loss placed below the nearest Fibonacci level. Given the current bearish setup, a short-biased strategy using a bearish engulfing or a break below the 0.517 level might also be tested. A trailing stop could be used to capture momentum while managing risk. Historical volatility spikes, such as the one at 19:30 ET, could be used to refine entry and exit timing.