Market Overview for Curve DAO Token/Tether (CRVUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• CRV/USDT rose from $0.7288 to $0.8058, driven by late-day buying pressure and strong volume in the final 15-minute candle.
• Momentum remained positive throughout the session, with RSI above 60 and MACD in bullish territory, indicating sustained demand.
• Volatility expanded significantly, especially after 04:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands stretching to capture the $0.78–$0.81 range.
• Divergence was absent, and volume surged 3x in the final hour, confirming the price breakout.
• Fibonacci levels at $0.79 and $0.80 served as temporary resistance, but price closed above both.

The Curve DAO Token/Tether pair (CRVUSDT) opened at $0.7288 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.8058 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. The price touched a high of $0.8118 and a low of $0.7244 over the 24-hour period. Total volume across the 96 15-minute candles was 23,913,965.1, and total notional turnover (volume × average price) was approximately $17,950,000.

The price action displayed a strong bullish bias, particularly after 04:00 ET, when CRV/USDT began a sustained upward trend. A key support level emerged at $0.77, which held during several pullbacks and acted as a base for a rally. Notable candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing formation at 09:45–10:00 ET and a tall bullish hammer in the final 15-minute period, suggesting a reacceleration in buying pressure. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed into a bullish alignment around 08:00–10:00 ET, further confirming the uptrend.

Bollinger Bands reflected increasing volatility, with the bands expanding as the price surged. By the final hour, the price consistently traded near the upper band, indicating high volatility and strong upward momentum. RSI remained above 50 for most of the session and peaked near 75 in the final candle, suggesting the pair is in a strong bullish phase, though not yet overbought. MACD showed positive divergence, with both the line and histogram rising through the session, reinforcing the bullish case.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key 15-minute swing showed strong buying at $0.7758 (38.2%) and $0.79 (61.8%), before the final breakout. These levels acted as temporary resistance and were overcome by surging volume and order flow.

Backtest Hypothesis
The provided strategy suggests a long-biased approach when the price closes above both the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, combined with a bullish engulfing pattern and RSI above 50. Given the conditions observed on 2025-09-18—specifically the bullish crossover, strong RSI, and confirmed bullish patterns—this strategy would have triggered a long signal at or near 09:45–10:00 ET. If executed, the trade would have aligned with the subsequent rally to $0.8058. A stop-loss placed below the $0.77 support level would have preserved capital during any retracements, while a target above $0.81 aligns with the observed breakout behavior. This strategy could be refined further by incorporating volume confirmation and Bollinger Band expansion as filters for higher-probability setups.