Market Overview for Curve (CRVUSD): 2025-09-04

• CRVUSD opened at $0.7855 and closed near $0.7555 after a sharp selloff in the last candle.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart following key resistance at $0.7905.
• Volatility surged in the final 24 hours, but trading volume remained relatively low.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with prices near a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior bullish swing.
• Bollinger Bands compressed for much of the day, with the close breaking below the lower band amid a breakdown.

Curve’s CRVUSD pair opened at $0.7855 on 2025-09-03 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.7915 and as low as $0.7511 before closing at $0.7555 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 6,158.4, with a turnover (notional value) of approximately $4,771.62.

Structure & Formations

The daily 15-minute chart displayed a bearish reversal, marked by a large bearish engulfing pattern as the asset broke below key resistance at $0.7905. The prior consolidation near this level failed to hold, and the move below $0.7602 confirmed a breakdown from the ascending triangle. A significant support level appears to be forming around $0.7555, which has held for the past three candles. A doji formed at the low of the breakdown, suggesting a temporary pause in the selloff but not a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, signaling a bearish crossover and a shift in medium-term sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line with strong bearish momentum, while the RSI dropped from overbought territory to neutral, nearing oversold levels. These indicators suggest a continuation of the bearish trend, but caution is warranted as RSI in the 20–30 range often signals potential short-term bounces.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was low for much of the day, with the bands tightening around the $0.7893–$0.7905 range. This compression was followed by a sharp selloff that broke below the lower band. Price closing near the lower band suggests a short-term bearish bias, though consolidation above the $0.7555 level could stabilize volatility in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Despite the large price move, volume remained relatively low, with most of the selling pressure concentrated in the final candle at $0.7575. The $0.7905–$0.7915 range saw a volume spike of 1,733.8, but it did not hold. A divergence appears between price and volume, with the latter failing to confirm a strong bearish breakout. This may suggest a potential false breakdown or a lack of conviction among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent move from $0.7845 to $0.7915 has seen a 61.8% retracement at $0.7630, where the price stalled before continuing its descent. A 38.2% retracement is at $0.7776, which could become a short-term resistance on any rebound. The $0.7555 level aligns with the 78.6% retracement, making it a critical area to watch for further bearish or bullish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern with confirmation below the 20-period MA and a RSI reading above 65. The stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high, while the take-profit is aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Given the recent action, the conditions were largely met in the 15-minute timeframe on the close at $0.7575. However, the low volume may weaken the signal, and a bounce above $0.7602 could invalidate the setup. This approach could be effective in a trending market but may require additional filters in range-bound conditions.