Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) – October 4, 2025

• Price declined from 0.2983 to 0.2812, showing bearish momentum and oversold conditions on RSI.
• Volume increased during key down moves, confirming bearish bias.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on 2025-10-04 00:00–00:15, followed by a breakdown.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the sharp drop, signaling potential volatility.
• Fibonacci support at 0.2785 now in play as next target if bearish trend continues.

On October 4, 2025 at 12:00 ET, CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at 0.2937, reached a high of 0.2983, and closed at 0.2812, with a low of 0.2804. Total volume was 635,919.6 and notional turnover was 178,553.0 USDC. The price action shows a clear bearish bias over the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action reveals a strong bearish bias, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming on the 15-minute chart during the early morning hours of October 4. This pattern is confirmed by a sharp drop in price, volume, and a breakdown from recent highs. A significant support level appears to be forming near 0.2800, as price bounced off this level multiple times during the day. Notable bearish momentum was observed during the 00:00–00:30 ET window, which saw the most significant volume spike.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart have trended downward, aligning with the overall bearish bias. Price closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the downtrend. Longer-term averages (50/100/200) on the daily chart are not immediately available but, based on recent 15-minute data, they likely remain bearish. This suggests that the market is currently in a short- to mid-term bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram shows a clear bearish divergence in the early morning session, with the MACD line dropping sharply below the signal line during the key bearish engulfing pattern. RSI reached 30, signaling oversold conditions, but has not yet shown a convincing rebound, which may indicate the downtrend could continue. Momentum remains weak, with bearish divergence seen in the closing hours, suggesting further downside pressure is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of volatility contraction prior to the sharp decline, especially around 23:00–00:15 ET, followed by a break to the downside. Price is now trading near the lower band on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the oversold condition. This suggests that a reversion to the mean may be limited unless volume surges and price breaks above the 0.2850–0.2860 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the most bearish sessions, including the 00:00–00:15, 01:00–01:15, and 04:30–04:45 windows, confirming the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover also increased during these periods, aligning with price declines. However, volume has not shown a significant increase during recent attempts to rebound, which may indicate a lack of conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing high of 0.2983 and swing low of 0.2804, key levels include 0.2853 (38.2%) and 0.2827 (61.8%). Price is currently near 0.2826, suggesting that the next level to watch is 0.2785 (100%), which could be the next target if the downtrend continues. A rebound above 0.2860 may indicate a potential reversal or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern and confirmed breakdown, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the close of the bearish engulfing candle (0.2983) with a stop just above the high of the pattern (0.2983–0.2985), and a take-profit target at 0.2815–0.2805 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and support level). If RSI remains below 50 and MACD remains bearish, the trade could be held for a 1–2-hour window. This strategy would benefit from high volume and bearish confirmation during key breakdown hours.