Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC)

• Price declined from 0.2841 to 0.2818, with bearish continuation patterns observed late in the session.
• High volatility seen mid-cycle, followed by consolidation toward the 24-hour close.
• Volume spiked above 18,000 during key price rejections and pullbacks.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while MACD flattened, signaling potential near-term range-bound action.
• Bollinger Bands constricted as price hovered near the lower band, hinting at a possible reversal setup.

The CoW Protocol/USDC pair (COWUSDC) opened at 0.2841 on October 7 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.2818 on October 8 at the same time. The 24-hour session saw a high of 0.2854 and a low of 0.2759. Total volume reached 306,188.7 with a notional turnover of approximately $84,466. A bearish tone emerged late in the session following sharp intraday swings and failed attempts to retest key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish continuation bias after a key rejection at 0.2831–0.2833 and a failed bullish rebound. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.2831–0.2830, followed by a doji at 0.2818–0.2818, suggesting exhaustion in both directions. Notable support levels emerged at 0.2806–0.2808 and 0.278–0.2785, while resistance is seen at 0.2825–0.283. A breakdown below 0.2806 may target the 0.278–0.277 level with increased volatility likely if the 0.2759 level is tested again.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with the 50-period line at ~0.2822. This indicates a bearish bias in the short term. For daily charters, longer-term averages (50–200) are not fully available in this dataset, but the 50-period line is expected to be near ~0.2825, which aligns with the key support zone identified.

MACD & RSI

RSI dipped below 30 during the late-night and early morning hours, indicating oversold conditions. MACD showed a flattening trend with a bearish crossover earlier in the session. While this may not confirm a reversal, the combination of overextended bearish momentum and the formation of a potential bullish divergence in late morning could suggest a short-term bounce is possible.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded briefly in the early morning hours and then contracted as the session progressed. Price hovered near the lower band for several hours, indicating bearish control. A move above the upper band would require a strong bullish reversal, while a retest of the lower band could see a bounce, especially if supported by increased volume and RSI improvement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply around 19:00–20:00 ET as price broke below key support at 0.2806, with a peak of 18,777.2. This was followed by a consolidation phase with significantly lower volume, suggesting a pause in momentum. Notional turnover followed the volume pattern closely, with no major divergences observed. A retest of the 0.2806–0.2812 zone will be crucial for confirming bearish or bullish intentions.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels based on the 15-minute swings show 38.2% at ~0.2825 and 61.8% at ~0.2810. The 61.8% level coincided with the doji at 0.2818–0.2818 and appears to act as a key psychological pivot. A rebound from this level would likely test the 0.2825–0.2831 resistance, while a breakdown would target the 0.2800–0.2780 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern or a rejection at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed above the 38.2% level. A long entry could be triggered on a bullish breakout above 0.2825 with confirmation in volume and RSI. Given the current structure and RSI exhaustion, a test of the 0.2806–0.2812 range is likely to reveal the next directional bias.