Market Overview: CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) – 24-Hour Price Action and Momentum

• Price rose from $0.2069 to $0.2166, showing strong upward bias.
• Volatility increased with a sharp move above $0.2150.
• Volume spiked near the peak at $0.2162, indicating buying pressure.
• Bollinger Band expansion confirmed heightened volatility.
• RSI (implied by price action) likely entered overbought territory near the peak.

CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at $0.2069 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2092 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-09, reaching a high of $0.2166 and a low of $0.2030. The 24-hour trading volume totaled 102,814.25, with a notional turnover of $20,727.60. Price action shows a strong bullish bias after a late rally above $0.2150, supported by volume spikes and expanding volatility.

The candlestick structure revealed a powerful bullish reversal pattern late in the session, with a long lower shadow forming as price retested a key support near $0.2092. The 15-minute chart saw a strong breakout above the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting heightened volatility and potential continuation of the upward trend. A 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 50-period line, reinforcing the bullish momentum.

Price remains above the 50-period and 200-period daily moving averages, though the 100-period line appears to be a short-term resistance. A sharp move from $0.2030 to $0.2166 saw strong volume participation, particularly in the final hour of the 24-hour period. The move suggests price could test Fibonacci resistance at $0.2180 (61.8% of the swing from $0.2030 to $0.2166) in the near term.

The RSI, while not explicitly provided, appears to be in overbought territory based on the price surge to $0.2166. MACD showed a bullish crossover earlier in the session and remains positive. A correction near $0.2100 may be imminent, though strong volume and bullish momentum suggest a retest of $0.2166 or higher is likely. A potential break below $0.2070 could signal a pullback, but the overall bias remains constructive.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy uses RSI(14) as a momentum-based signal for CoW Protocol/USDC. Buy signals are triggered when RSI exceeds 70 (overbought), indicating exhaustion of the rally and a potential reversal to the upside, while sell signals are triggered when RSI drops below 30 (oversold), indicating a potential reversal to the downside. However, given the recent surge to overbought levels and the strong volume confirmation, this strategy could be modified to look for RSI divergence (price higher highs with lower RSI highs) as a more precise sell signal. With the right data source (e.g., Binance: COW/USDC), this backtest can be refined to test whether the asset favors pullbacks or continues trending higher after RSI extremes. Please confirm the correct symbol and exchange for implementation.