Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) – 24-Hour Performance

• Price action showed a 2.3% dip in 24 hours, closing at $0.2849 after a sharp intraday low of $0.2774.
• Volatility spiked during the 04:15–04:30 ET window, with price dropping over 2.8% amid heavy volume.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 2025-09-24 04:15 candle, suggesting short-term bearish momentum.
• RSI fell into oversold territory twice, indicating potential for short-term bounce but not reversal.
• Notional turnover reached $4.8M, with divergences between volume and price suggesting cautious sentiment.

CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at $0.2849 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.2904, and closed at $0.2849 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The total notional turnover over the 24-hour period was $4.8 million, with a total volume of 538,561 COW tokens traded.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart for COWUSDC displayed a bearish bias with a distinct breakdown from a key intraday high of $0.2904 to a low of $0.2774, a range of 4.3%. Notable formations included a bearish engulfing pattern on the 04:15 ET candle and a doji at $0.2854 on 2025-09-24 00:00, indicating indecision after a sharp decline. The price found temporary support at $0.2830 and $0.2794 before rebounding, though these levels were not strong enough to reverse the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart intersected and sloped downward for much of the session, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period MA (around $0.2875–$0.2865) acted as a dynamic resistance level through the early part of the session. The longer-term 200-period MA (not shown here) would likely continue to slope downward, confirming a bearish bias for COWUSDC.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence during the 04:15–04:30 ET window, with price declining while the MACD failed to match the lower lows. The RSI dipped into oversold territory twice, at $0.2774 and $0.2818, suggesting potential short-term rebounds but not long-term reversals. Momentum indicators did not strongly support a reversal, with RSI failing to retrace more than 38.2% from key lows.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 04:15–04:30 ET window, indicating heightened volatility. Price briefly fell below the lower band at $0.2774, confirming a temporary oversold condition. However, the rebound was short-lived and did not exceed the upper band. Volatility has since stabilized, with price trading within a narrower range, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 04:15–04:30 ET window, with over 76,000 COW tokens traded during the sharp drop from $0.2818 to $0.2774. However, price and volume diverged at this point—price continued to fall while volume dropped off, indicating weak conviction in the move. The highest notional turnover was recorded at $0.2880 during the 00:45–01:00 ET window, where price action was relatively neutral, suggesting accumulation or distribution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key move from $0.2904 to $0.2774, the 38.2% level is at $0.2839 and the 61.8% level is at $0.2864. Price briefly tested the 38.2% level before continuing downward, indicating that support was weak. On the 15-minute chart, retracements applied to intraday swings showed similar bearish pressure, with key retracement levels failing to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for COWUSDC could involve entering short positions on the breakdown of key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 38.2% retracement at $0.2839) with a stop above the 61.8% level at $0.2864. This would align with the bearish bias observed in the MACD, RSI, and volume divergence. A long bias could be triggered on a retest of the 0.5% retracement at $0.2839, with a target above the 20-period MA. This approach would be consistent with the observed price behavior and could be optimized using historical intraday data from platforms such as Bybit or KuCoin.