Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-11

• Price opened at 0.2629 and formed a bearish intraday reversal pattern after reaching 0.2667
• Volatility surged early before a deep correction to 0.1305; price recovered into a bullish consolidation phase
• Volume spiked to 339,649.1 at the 21:45 ET low, but failed to confirm a strong reversal
• RSI entered oversold territory and is bouncing, suggesting potential short-term bounce
• MACD shows bearish divergence with price at 0.1305 but is now turning upward

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET–1, CoW Protocol/USDC opened at 0.2629 and traded as high as 0.2667 before reaching a 24-hour low of 0.1305 at 21:30 ET. The price closed at 0.2475 by 12:00 ET. The total volume over the 24-hour window reached 339,649.1, with a notional turnover of $84,242.1 (based on cumulative volume × average price). The pair demonstrated a volatile bearish correction followed by a partial bullish recovery into the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bearish reversal at 21:30 ET (0.1305), marked by a large bearish candle with high volume, followed by a bullish continuation as the price rebounded to 0.2475. Key support levels emerged at 0.1958, 0.2239, and 0.2434, while resistance was noted at 0.263, 0.2667, and 0.27. A morning doji at 02:45 ET and an evening engulfing pattern at 12:15–12:30 ET indicated indecision and potential trend continuation.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover during the early bearish phase but began to converge during the recovery. The MACD turned positive as the price rebounded from 0.1305, signaling a potential shift in momentum. RSI reached an oversold reading of 15 at the 21:30 ET low, then rose to 47 at close, hinting at a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion as the price collapsed from 0.2568 to 0.1305, indicating high volatility. Price closed near the middle band at 0.2475, suggesting a temporary equilibrium. A potential retest of the upper band at 0.263–0.2667 may confirm if the bounce is a true reversal or a consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly uneven, with the largest spike occurring at 21:30 ET (339,649.1) when the price hit the daily low. However, this did not result in a strong reversal. Conversely, the recovery phase from 0.1305 to 0.2475 saw relatively lower volume, indicating weak conviction. Turnover aligned with volume, with the deepest drop in turnover coinciding with the price low.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 0.2568–0.1305 swing show 0.2434 (61.8%) as a key support level, which the price tested and held on the rebound. The 0.263–0.2667 range (61.8% of the post-low rebound) may serve as near-term resistance if the bullish momentum continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position at 61.8% retracement (0.2434) on a 15-minute chart with a stop loss 2% below entry and a take profit at the 0.263–0.2667 resistance zone. This aligns with the observed Fibonacci levels and recent price behavior. Given the current RSI reading and MACD divergence, this strategy could validate the recent bullish recovery or signal a false breakout.