Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) on 2025-11-13

• CoW Protocol/USDC closed at 0.2073, down from 0.2089 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Key support at 0.2040 and resistance near 0.2090 observed, with a bearish engulfing pattern emerging early in the session.
• Volume spiked at 79,233.6 at 10:45 AM, but turnover failed to confirm the strength, indicating potential divergence.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions briefly before a sharp pullback, while MACD showed bearish crossover.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with price fluctuating between 0.1973 and 0.2098, showing mixed short-term sentiment.

COWUSDC opened at 0.2089 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.2073 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.2098 and low of 0.1973 during the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 79,233.6, while total turnover amounted to approximately $15,854 (assuming $1 = 1 USDC). The pair exhibited a bearish trend with mixed short-term momentum.

Structure & Formations

The COWUSDC pair showed a bearish engulfing pattern in the early session, signaling potential bearish continuation. The price tested key support at 0.2040 multiple times and bounced back toward the mid-range. Resistance levels around 0.2090 appeared strong, with the price failing to break above despite several attempts. A doji at 03:45 AM indicated indecision, reinforcing potential bearish continuation if the price fails to break above 0.2090.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, forming a bearish crossover. The 50-period line on the daily chart, however, remains above the 200-period line, suggesting the pair is still in a long-term bullish trend. Short-term bearish momentum appears to be conflicting with a longer-term positive bias, creating a mixed outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line on the 15-minute chart, confirming short-term bearish momentum. The RSI approached overbought territory before a sharp pullback, suggesting exhaustion in the upside. At the time of close, the RSI was in neutral territory, indicating potential for a consolidation phase or further downward movement.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening significantly. The price spent much of the day near the lower band, with a brief reversion to the midline at 04:00 AM. This suggests that the price may be oversold near 0.1973, and a pullback toward the upper band of 0.2090 could be limited unless volume increases to confirm a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 10:45 AM with a large candle at 0.2027, but the price failed to maintain the momentum. This divergence between volume and price movement could indicate weakening bearish conviction. Conversely, low turnover at 03:45 AM and 04:00 AM highlighted a lack of conviction in the downward move, hinting at potential consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent swing from 0.1973 to 0.2098, the 61.8% level at approximately 0.2040 has been a key support. A break below this level could target the 50% level at 0.2035 and then the 38.2% level at 0.2026. Resistance levels at 0.2077 and 0.2085 are likely to be retested in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy leveraged bearish engulfing patterns identified from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13, with short positions opened at the close of the pattern candle. An 8% stop-loss was used to manage risk, reflecting the high volatility typical of this pair. This approach aligns with the observed bearish engulfing pattern on 2025-11-13 and could have captured a portion of the 0.2098 to 0.1973 drop. The strategy’s success depends heavily on volume confirmation and adherence to strict risk parameters, making it a viable short-term bearish play if supported by further technical indicators.