Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) on 2025-11-10

• Price fluctuated in a tight range with a late-night bearish reversal.
• High volume emerged around key support levels but failed to drive a meaningful bounce.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions, but divergence hints at potential bearish bias.

The CoW Protocol/USDC pair (COWUSDC) opened at 0.2164 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.2207, a low of 0.2112, and closed at 0.2117 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 1,018,106.5, while notional turnover (price × volume) amounted to approximately $216,440 (based on average exchange rate).

Price action showed a bearish trend after a morning consolidation phase. A key bearish reversal candle appeared at 16:45 ET with a high of 0.2133 and close at 0.2112, followed by a sharp decline to a 24-hour low of 0.2109. This candlestick pattern may signal increased bearish momentum ahead.

Structure & Formations

Price found support around 0.2145 and 0.2154 multiple times, suggesting psychological relevance. However, the failure to hold above these levels indicates weakening support. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 19:30 ET on 2025-11-09, followed by a breakdown to 0.2145. A larger bearish engulfing candle at 16:45 ET on 2025-11-10 confirmed a bearish shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, price recently closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD crossed into negative territory with a bearish divergence, suggesting further downward momentum could follow. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 200-period MA from below, hinting at a potential death cross.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

The RSI fell into oversold territory near 30 during the final hours of the session, but with price continuing to decline, it suggests a breakdown rather than a buying opportunity. Bollinger Bands widened after the bearish engulfing pattern, indicating increased volatility. Price ended the session near the lower band, a sign of deepening bearish pressure.

Volume and Turnover

High volume accompanied the breakdown to 0.2112, confirming the bearish sentiment. However, volume declined during the final hours despite a significant drop, which could indicate exhaustion or lack of follow-through. Notional turnover also dropped during the final candle, raising questions about the sustainability of further declines.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the recent 15-minute swing (0.2145 to 0.2207) placed key support at 61.8% (0.2161) and 38.2% (0.2183), both of which failed to hold. Daily-level Fibonacci levels from the previous high of 0.2207 and low of 0.2112 suggest 0.2145 and 0.2161 as critical levels to watch. Price may find support at the 0.2112 level next if the downtrend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

To implement a backtest of a “sell at next resistance” strategy, we will define the resistance as the first pivot-high candle after an entry point. A pivot-high occurs when a candle’s high is higher than the highs of the preceding and following three periods (N = 3). Using this rule, we can automatically identify when a bearish engulfing pattern is followed by a reversal and when price reaches a significant pivot high, triggering a sell signal.

We will pull all bearish engulfing patterns for COWUSDC since 2022-01-01, and for each, generate an entry signal on the next day’s open. The exit will occur when the first pivot-high is confirmed. The strategy will be evaluated from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-10, measuring performance in terms of win rate, average return, and maximum drawdown. An interactive chart will be provided for visual reference.