Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) on 2025-10-13

• COWUSDC fell 3.1% over the past 24 hours, closing near a key support level at 0.2578.
• Volatility spiked in late hours, with a sharp decline from 0.2607 to 0.2515.
• RSI shows oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands have narrowed recently, signaling a potential breakout.
• High volume in the 22:15–01:00 ET window suggests increased activity amid consolidation.

Market Open and Price Action

CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at 0.2596 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.2593 on 2025-10-13 at the same time. The pair reached a high of 0.27 and a low of 0.2515 within the 24-hour period, recording a -3.1% decline. Total volume traded was 126,886.2, while the notional turnover amounted to approximately $33,494. Price action shows a bearish bias with several bearish reversals in the late-night trading hours.

Structure & Formations

The price of COWUSDC formed a key bearish reversal pattern in the 22:15–22:30 ET window with a long upper wick and a declining close. Additionally, a bearish divergence emerged in the 02:00–04:00 ET range, with price failing to retest the 0.262 level after earlier rejections. The 0.2578–0.2593 zone appears to be a critical support cluster, and a break below 0.256 could trigger further selling pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the 50SMA crossing below the 20SMA (a death cross) around 01:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200SMA are in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the downward bias. The price is currently trading below the 50DMA and appears to be consolidating in a tight range ahead of a possible breakout or breakdown.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory in the early morning hours, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The histogram has been shrinking since the 02:00 ET window, suggesting a potential exhaustion of the bearish move. The RSI reached 32 at the close, entering oversold territory and hinting that a short-term bounce could be in the cards. However, a failure to rise above the 50 level would keep the bearish bias intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have been contracting since the 03:00–04:00 ET window, signaling a potential for a breakout or breakdown. The price has remained within the band range but has failed to show strength to push above the upper band. If the bands continue to contract, a sharp move in either direction may follow. The current price is near the 61.8% retracement level of the most recent 15-minute bearish swing.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly around 22:15–22:30 ET when the price dropped from 0.2637 to 0.2632. The notional turnover during this period was among the highest of the day, suggesting increased selling pressure. Divergences appear during the 05:00–07:00 ET window, where the price made a low but volume failed to confirm. This may indicate a lack of conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels have been effective in identifying key swing points over the past 24 hours. The 61.8% level at 0.2578–0.2593 has served as a strong support zone, with price bouncing back multiple times. A break below this level could extend the decline to the next key Fibonacci level at 0.2545. On the upside, the 38.2% level at 0.2623 may act as a short-term resistance if buyers return.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish divergence and oversold RSI at the close, a backtesting strategy could be based on identifying Bullish Engulfing patterns at key support levels to capture potential reversals. By simulating entries at the open of the following candle, the strategy would aim to capture rebounds off 0.2578–0.2593. However, without a confirmed ticker or OHLC data for COWUSDC, this strategy cannot be fully tested. A recognized ticker or data file is required to implement the backtest from 2022-01-01 forward.