Market Overview for CoW Protocol/USDC on 2025-10-20

• Price dropped from 0.2344 to 0.2299 amid high volume, followed by a rebound to 0.238.
• Volatility spiked in the overnight session with a low of 0.2294 and high of 0.238.
• Strong bearish momentum in the early session reversed midday, indicating mixed sentiment.
• RSI entered oversold territory briefly, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as price diverged from the mid-band, signaling increased uncertainty.

The CoW Protocol/USDC pair (COWUSDC) opened at 0.2344 on 2025-10-19 at 12:00 ET and traded between 0.2294 and 0.238 over the next 24 hours, closing at 0.238 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-20. Total volume reached 543,642.9 units, with a total notional turnover of approximately $126,891, assuming an average price of 0.234. Price action shows a clear bearish thrust early, followed by a strong recovery in the latter half of the day.

Key support levels were identified around 0.2294 and 0.2311, where buying pressure emerged after a significant pullback. Resistance levels appeared at 0.2347 and 0.2364, where the price stalled multiple times before breaking through. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 2025-10-19 at 17:30 ET and again at 2025-10-20 at 07:45 ET, suggesting potential reversal signals amid bearish momentum. A long lower shadow on the candle at 2025-10-20 at 07:15 ET also indicates a rejection of lower prices.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed during the afternoon, forming a bullish signal as price moved above both. The 50-period line provided a dynamic support level during the midday dip. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period lines are converging with the 200-period line acting as a strong resistance. The price closed above both the 50 and 100-period averages, indicating positive short-term bias but remains below the long-term 200-period average.

MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the session but reversed to bullish territory as volume and price rose. The histogram expanded in the afternoon and evening, suggesting increasing momentum in the short-term bullish move. RSI dropped below 30 during the overnight hours, hitting a low of 28 before rebounding strongly. This suggests the pair may find support if it dips again. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the price recovery, with price closing near the upper band at 0.238, hinting at a potential continuation of the bullish trend unless a sharp pullback occurs.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the key low of 0.2294 to the high of 0.238 indicate potential support/resistance at 0.2328 (38.2%), 0.2353 (61.8%), and 0.2369 (78.6%). Price currently resides near the 61.8% level at 0.238, where it is likely to face resistance. Volume and turnover both spiked during the late-night and early-morning hours, with a sharp increase in notional turnover coinciding with the break above 0.2347 and 0.2364. This confirms the strength of the recent bullish move and suggests continued buying pressure if the pair holds above 0.234.

Backtest Hypothesis

The strategy outlined aims to identify and act on Bullish-Engulfing patterns in the COWUSDC pair to determine potential reversal points and generate buy signals. However, the data service returned an error indicating that the ticker could not be located, suggesting possible issues with the symbol format or historical data availability. A potential backtesting approach could involve using a modified symbol (e.g., COW/USDC:BINANCE) or alternative venue-specific identifier to access the necessary candle data. If the data becomes available, a backtest could be conducted using the identified Bullish-Engulfing signals from 2025-10-19 at 17:30 ET and 2025-10-20 at 07:45 ET, tracking performance outcomes to validate the strategy's effectiveness.