Market Overview for COTI/Bitcoin (COTIBTC) on 2025-11-07

Summary
• Price action remained tightly consolidated within a narrow range.
• Volatility remained subdued with no significant trend formation.
• A late-day breakout above 3.1e-07 signaled potential bullish momentum.
• Volume spiked in the final hours, confirming the breakout attempt.
• RSI shows neutral momentum, with no overbought or oversold conditions observed.

COTI/Bitcoin (COTIBTC) opened at 2.7e-07 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 3.9e-07 and fell to a low of 2.7e-07, closing at 3.9e-07 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,512,499.0, with notional turnover amounting to 388,950 (in base asset terms).

The 24-hour price action reveals a tightly compressed range early in the session, followed by a gradual breakout attempt as volume picked up. The consolidation suggests a period of indecision among traders, which eventually gave way to a decisive move higher toward the end of the window. The breakout above 3.1e-07, supported by a notable volume spike, suggests that bulls may be regaining control after a period of sideways movement.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained closely aligned, indicating a flat and non-directional trend throughout most of the session. The RSI hovered around the 50 level, suggesting neutral momentum with no immediate overbought or oversold signals. MACD remained in the zero line, reflecting a lack of strong directional bias.

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction in the early part of the session, followed by a slow expansion as volatility increased. Prices pushed outside the upper band in the final hours, aligning with the breakout observed. This indicates a possible increase in market activity and a potential shift in sentiment.

Volume and notional turnover were mostly flat for most of the session, with a sharp increase occurring in the final hours. The volume spike coincided with the price breakout and provided confirmation rather than divergence, suggesting a higher probability of continuation. However, the magnitude of the volume increase suggests caution in interpreting it as a strong breakout signal.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the session’s swing low (2.7e-07) to high (3.9e-07) show the current price near the 61.8% level. This level could serve as a key resistance, with a potential pullback or consolidation expected if the price fails to move past this level. A close above 3.9e-07 could signal a potential target at the 78.6% extension level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on bullish engulfing patterns, a key reversal signal in candlestick analysis. The approach involves entering a long position at the open of the following session after a bullish engulfing candle is confirmed. Exits occur exactly three trading days later, regardless of P&L. Close prices are used for profit and loss calculations, aligning with common conventions in short-term trading studies.

The strategy was tested using the 15-minute OHLC data for COTI/Bitcoin, capturing the price dynamics observed in this 24-hour period. Given the flat early action and late breakout, such a strategy would benefit from identifying the bullish engulfing patterns that emerged during the consolidation phase. These patterns may have signaled the potential for the eventual breakout and could offer a structured way to capture the price surge.

The interactive dashboard allows users to explore the trade list, equity curve, and risk metrics in detail. Additional constraints such as stop-loss, take-profit, or different price references can be added for further refinement. The test results provide a baseline performance for the strategy, which may be improved by incorporating volatility-based filters or time-based constraints.