Market Overview for Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) on 2025-10-14

• ATOMUSDT declined by 6.6% in the last 24 hours, closing at 3.441 from an open of 3.684
• Price broke below a key support level near 3.50, triggering a bearish continuation
• Volatility spiked with a 160,404.33 volume candle and 117,519.93 turnover during the downturn
• RSI approached oversold levels, suggesting potential short-term bounce, but trend remains bearish
• Bollinger Bands widened as the selloff accelerated, indicating increased risk of a continuation

Market Overview for Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) on 2025-10-14

Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) opened at 3.684 on 2025-10-13 12:00 ET and closed at 3.441 by 2025-10-14 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a 6.6% decline, with a low of 3.305 and high of 3.669. Total volume reached 1,660,231.34, and notional turnover was $5,877,301.17 (calculated as volume × average price). The 24-hour selloff was driven by strong bearish momentum and declining buying pressure.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, ATOMUSDT broke below key support levels around 3.50 and 3.45, forming a bearish continuation pattern. A bearish engulfing candle was observed around 3.362, confirming the breakdown. A bearish divergence emerged between price and volume during the selloff, with the largest volume candle (160,404.33) occurring at the peak of the decline. A potential short-term support is forming near the 3.33–3.34 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remains below the 20SMA and 50SMA, both of which are trending downward. The 50EMA is at ~3.53, and the 20EMA is near 3.50, indicating ongoing bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is at 3.62, the 100DMA at 3.73, and the 200DMA at 3.81—confirming the broader bearish bias. Price is now over 10% below its 200DMA, signaling a deep correction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the morning, forming a bearish crossover, while the histogram continues to narrow, indicating fading momentum. RSI has dipped into oversold territory, reaching a low of 29, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, but bearish control remains strong. The MACD remains negative with no clear sign of a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly as volatility increased during the selloff. Price currently sits near the lower band at ~3.33–3.34, with the midline at ~3.47 and the upper band at ~3.61. The widening bands confirm a period of high volatility and suggest a continuation of the current trend is more likely than a reversal. Traders should watch for price action near the lower band for potential bounce or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and notional turnover spiked during the selloff, with the largest volume candle at 160,404.33 and a corresponding turnover of $568,421.43, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has declined in the past few hours, suggesting a potential pause. The divergence between price and volume indicates weakening bearish momentum, but the overall trend remains intact. A significant reversal would likely require a surge in volume and buying pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent 15-minute swing (3.405 to 3.446) show the 38.2% retracement at 3.423 and the 61.8% at 3.406—both of which were tested and broken. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the high of 3.669 is at 3.51 and is currently acting as resistance. Price is now below key Fibonacci levels, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD golden-cross strategy has not provided a reliable edge for ATOM-USDT over the past three years. While 61 golden-cross events were identified, the average 1-day excess return was negative at –0.72%, with no statistically significant performance up to 30 days. A win rate of 40–50% suggests the signal is at best a weak indicator. Traders should consider augmenting this signal with other indicators such as RSI divergence, volume spikes, or broader trend filters for better risk-adjusted outcomes.