Market Overview for Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) on 2025-10-13

• Price surged from $3.394 to $3.592 before consolidating near $3.541.
• Strong bullish momentum in early ET hours, with RSI reaching overbought levels.
• Volume spiked during consolidation, suggesting distribution at higher levels.
• Key resistance at $3.592, and support at $3.46–3.47.
• Bollinger Bands show recent volatility expansion, with price approaching the upper band.

Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) opened at $3.394 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.541 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $3.592 and a low of $3.394. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,814,449.90 and total turnover was $6,118,661.86. Price action suggests strong buying interest early in the session followed by consolidation and bearish pressure toward the close.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a Bullish Engulfing Pattern in the early session when it moved from $3.441 to $3.486, then surged further to $3.592. This was followed by a Bearish Harami and a Shooting Star pattern as price pulled back from the high. Key support levels identified include $3.46–3.47, $3.44, and $3.40, with resistance at $3.50, $3.56, and $3.59. The price has tested the $3.56 level twice and failed to hold above it, indicating strong resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above price during the initial rally, confirming bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA is starting to cross below the 20-period MA, suggesting a potential bearish turn. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at $3.49, the 100-period MA at $3.45, and the 200-period MA at $3.40, placing current price above all three and indicating a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the late session, with the histogram shrinking and the line crossing below the signal line. This suggests a loss of momentum. The RSI peaked at over 70, signaling overbought conditions, and has since pulled back toward 55, indicating a potential consolidation phase. However, RSI remains above 50, implying that bullish pressure is still in control for now.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands saw a volatility expansion during the morning session as price moved from $3.40 to $3.59, then stabilized near the upper band at $3.592. This suggests high volatility and potential reversal. If price remains below the upper band and closes below the 20-period MA, it could signal a pullback to the mid-band at $3.52–3.53, with a potential target toward the lower band at $3.44.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained elevated throughout the morning, with the largest spike occurring at $3.50–3.56, where 178,524.86 units were traded. Notional turnover reached a peak of $628,824.95 during this period. Price and turnover diverged in the late session, with price pulling back while volume remained high, suggesting distribution at higher levels. This is a bearish sign and increases the likelihood of a near-term pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the $3.394–3.592 swing, key levels include 38.2% at $3.537, 50% at $3.493, and 61.8% at $3.448. Price is currently near the 38.2% retracement level, which may act as a short-term support. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% levels align with $3.49 and $3.45, respectively, which have shown repeated resistance and support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy initially required both Bullish-Engulfing and Doji-Star patterns to occur on the same day, but this condition proved too restrictive, resulting in zero signals. A more practical approach would be to treat each pattern independently, as both may occur with sufficient frequency to generate tradeable signals. This could yield a more robust backtest. Alternatively, the two patterns could be evaluated in separate backtests to assess individual performance. Future steps may also include adjusting entry rules, holding periods, or adding risk controls like stop-loss levels at key support zones.