Market Overview: Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) – 2025-10-05 24-Hour Technical Summary

• • Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) edged higher in early ET before consolidating near key resistance.
• • Momentum remained mixed as RSI hit overbought levels, with volume surging in the morning session.
• • A bullish engulfing pattern emerged mid-day, signaling potential for a short-term breakout.
• • Volatility expanded during the overnight Asian session, with prices trading within the upper Bollinger Band for much of the day.
• • Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent low appear to be acting as support, suggesting limited downside risk for now.

The Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) pair opened at $4.094 on October 4 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $4.284, and closed at $4.217 as of 12:00 ET October 5. The total trading volume over the 24-hour window was 1,973,638.9 units, with a notional turnover of $8,375,364. The price action showed a volatile but generally bullish bias, with strong accumulation evident in the afternoon ET session.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure revealed a strong bullish engulfing pattern forming around 08:30 ET when the price surged from $4.268 to $4.282. This suggests a short-term reversal in bearish sentiment. Additionally, a doji formed at the peak of the session around 10:45 ET, indicating indecision among traders. Key support levels include $4.203 and $4.190, with resistance at $4.249 and $4.284. These levels appear to be holding strong based on the candlestick reactions.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a bullish bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages are still aligned in a bullish formation, with the price remaining above all of them. This reinforces the idea that the uptrend is intact, although a pullback to test the 20-period MA could be expected in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early morning session, confirming a positive shift in momentum. RSI peaked at overbought levels, reaching 72, indicating that caution is warranted in the near term. However, the RSI divergence observed in the late afternoon ET session suggests that the bulls are still in control. A drop below 50 would signal a weakening of momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the Asian session, with the Bollinger Bands widening to a width of $0.045. The price spent much of the session within the upper band, particularly after the 08:30 ET surge. This suggests strong buying interest in the $4.25–$4.28 range. A break below the lower band would indicate a breakdown in the current bullish trend, but for now, prices remain within the upper half of the channel.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning and afternoon sessions, especially between 05:00 ET and 08:30 ET, with the largest candle (9:45–10:00 ET) showing a volume of 127,498.99 and a high of $4.307. This coincided with a sharp move higher, indicating strong buying pressure. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the largest turnover occurring in the 05:00–08:30 ET window. Price and turnover appear to be aligned, supporting the validity of the recent bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $4.094 to $4.284, key levels include the 23.6% at $4.164, 38.2% at $4.199, and the 61.8% at $4.231. The price held above the 61.8% level throughout the session, suggesting strong support in the $4.21–$4.23 range. A breakdown below the 38.2% level would indicate a potential correction back to the 23.6% level, where further support could be found.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using a combination of the bullish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence to trigger long entries with a stop-loss placed just below the recent support at $4.19. Given the current momentum and the strong volume confirmation, a target of $4.25–$4.28 could be considered. This aligns well with the Bollinger Band and Fibonacci levels, which suggest a high probability of continuation within the current trend.