Market Overview for Cosmos (ATOMUSD)

• Cosmos (ATOMUSD) closed near the session low after a sharp sell-off into early morning ET.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 2:00 AM ET, with a 10.6% swing in a single candle.
• RSI remains oversold, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Volume spiked during the downward move, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Key support is holding near $4.41, while resistance lies at $4.52.

Cosmos (ATOMUSD) opened at $4.512 on 2025-09-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.421 at 12:00 ET the next day. The price reached an intraday high of $4.939 and a low of $4.379. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,613.29 units, and the notional turnover stood at approximately $7,625.66.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action for Cosmos revealed a strong bearish structure with a notable breakdown after 2:00 AM ET. A large bearish candle opened at $4.525 and closed at $4.939, indicating significant selling pressure. This was followed by a rapid drop to $4.406, forming a sharp bearish wedge pattern. The low at $4.406 appears to be a temporary support level, while the prior high at $4.524 is acting as a key resistance. A doji candle appeared near $4.421, signaling indecision after the drop.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has moved well below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating a strong bearish bias. The 20-period MA is currently at $4.542, and the 50-period MA is at $4.531, both acting as overhead resistance. On the daily chart, the price is below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, with the 50-period MA at $4.555 forming a key barrier for any near-term recovery.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and is declining, confirming the bearish momentum. The RSI is currently at 31, which is in oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound could be near. However, RSI divergence is not yet evident, and the MACD remains bearish. If the RSI rises above 35 without a price reversal, it could signal a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off from $4.939 to $4.406, with the Bollinger Bands widening to reflect increased uncertainty. Price action has since settled near the lower band, confirming bearish exhaustion. A retest of the upper band at $4.531 may occur if the price reverses, but a sustained break above that level would be required for a reversal signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off into the morning hours, with a single candle at $4.939 accounting for nearly 535 units of volume, the highest of the session. The notional turnover also spiked during that period, aligning with the price move. However, volume has been muted following the breakdown, suggesting a lack of follow-through on the bearish move. This divergence could point to a potential near-term reversal, especially if price action begins to stabilize near the $4.406 level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour swing from $4.379 to $4.939, key levels include the 38.2% retracement at $4.666 and the 61.8% at $4.541. These levels are currently acting as overhead resistance. On the 15-minute chart, recent swings have shown the 61.8% retracement at $4.515 is holding as a support level, while the 38.2% retracement at $4.531 is a potential resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering short positions when price breaks below a 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and volume increases by at least 100% above the 20-period average. A stop loss is placed at the highest high of the previous hour, and a target is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent move below the 50-period MA and the sharp volume increase during the breakdown, this strategy would have triggered a short signal late in the session. The target of $4.515 appears to be holding, suggesting the strategy may be validated in the near term.