Market Overview for Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) – October 12, 2025

• Price declined from $0.0891 to $0.0831, forming multiple bearish reversals after a sharp sell-off.
• RSI reached oversold levels, hinting at potential short-term bounce, but momentum remains bearish.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the 15-hour window, with volume surging at key breakdowns.
• Bollinger Bands indicate price hovering near the lower band, consistent with weak sentiment.
• A sharp late-day rally pushed price back to 61.8% Fib support, which now appears critical for near-term direction.

At 12:00 ET on October 12, 2025, Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) opened at $0.0885 and traded between $0.083 and $0.0911 over the past 24 hours, closing at $0.0831. Total volume reached 11,868,263.3 units, with a notional turnover of $993,804.33. A bearish bias emerged as price moved below key psychological support levels, with multiple engulfing and dark cloud cover patterns reinforcing the selloff.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed several bearish candlestick formations, including a bearish engulfing pattern around 19:30 ET and a dark cloud cover near $0.087. A doji at $0.0835 on October 12 suggested a potential pause in the downtrend. Key support levels identified at $0.083, $0.0815, and $0.0805, while resistance is currently at $0.085 and $0.086. Price appears to have broken below the ascending triangle formed during the early hours of October 11, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart indicate that price is trending well below both, with a clear bearish divergence. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at $0.0875, while the 200-period SMA sits at $0.0892, suggesting the downtrend is in line with broader averages. The 100-period SMA is at $0.088, further supporting the bearish tilt.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has remained negative throughout the session, with bearish crossovers occurring around 20:00 ET and again at 05:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory at $0.083, suggesting potential for a bounce, but the divergence between price and RSI indicates that sellers may remain in control. A RSI rebound above 40 would be a critical signal for near-term buyers.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a widening of the range between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase as volatility subsided. Price has been hovering near the lower band for much of the session, consistent with weak sentiment. A retest of the upper band at $0.085–$0.086 could indicate a potential short-term bounce, but a sustained close above this level would be needed for a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key breakdowns, particularly around 20:00 ET and 06:30 ET, suggesting increased selling pressure during those periods. Notional turnover also spiked in line with price declines, confirming the bearish bias. However, a divergence appears in the latter half of the session, where volume did not increase with the final rally to $0.0856, suggesting a potential lack of conviction in the move higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $0.083 to $0.0891, price found support at the 61.8% level around $0.0845–$0.0847. This level was briefly tested in the late morning before a sharp rebound. If the rally fails to hold above this level, the next key support would be at the 50% level of $0.086. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high to low is at $0.0875, which is also near the 50-period SMA and may offer a key pivot for the coming session.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern at key Fibonacci and moving average confluence levels, with a stop above the 50-period SMA. The strategy would target the next major support level while using RSI divergence and MACD bearish crossovers as filters for high-probability entries. Given the current structure, the best entry opportunity may have passed, but the setup could be replicated in the next leg down if price breaks below $0.083.