Market Overview: Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) - 24-Hour Summary

• Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) closed lower after a volatile 24-hour period, with bearish momentum intensifying after 19:00 ET.
• RSI reached oversold levels near 30 and rebounded slightly, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded around 18:00–19:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp selloff to a 24-hour low of 0.0985.
• Bollinger Bands saw a contraction during the night, followed by a breakout and bearish reversal.
• On-balance volume and price diverged slightly before the selloff, signaling a loss of bullish conviction.

Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) opened at 0.1049 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1005 on 2025-09-26 at the same time, hitting a high of 0.1056 and a low of 0.0985. Total volume was 20,464,934.6 and turnover amounted to 2,056.25 USD, marking a significant increase in volatility as price swung over 700 basis points.

The price structure over the last 24 hours showed a clear bearish bias, particularly after a key bearish engulfing pattern at 17:30–18:00 ET, which triggered a drop to the session low. A doji formed around 20:00–20:15 ET near 0.1012, hinting at exhaustion in the downtrend. Key support levels emerged at 0.0993 and 0.0985, both of which held multiple times during the selloff, indicating a possible floor for near-term price action. Resistance was tested at 0.1015 and 0.1025, with mixed results as price struggled to break above.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both dipped below price action, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages formed a bearish alignment, reinforcing the downward trend. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the morning, indicating a bearish crossover that intensified during the selloff. RSI dipped into oversold territory (30) by 21:30 ET and started a tentative rebound, suggesting a possible short-term reversal. However, this could be a bear trap as the broader trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands saw a significant contraction during the night hours (02:00–04:00 ET), leading into a break of the lower band by 18:00 ET, which marked the beginning of the aggressive selloff. This suggests a volatility spike and a bearish breakout. Price remained below the 20-period Bollinger Band for most of the session, indicating a continuation of bearish pressure.

Volume spiked sharply during the selloff between 17:30–18:15 ET, with a turnover of over 1.6 million USD. This aligns with the bearish breakout and confirms the strength of the downtrend. However, the divergence between price and volume was subtle in the hours prior to the selloff, suggesting a lack of conviction from longs. Turnover was also high in the early morning (00:00–01:30 ET), but it did not support a significant bullish move, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major 15-minute swing between 0.1056 and 0.0985, key levels at 0.1016 (38.2%), 0.1005 (61.8%), and 0.0998 (78.6%) acted as either support or resistance depending on the timeframe. The 0.1005 level (61.8%) held on several attempts, suggesting it is a critical level for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration focuses on using a combination of RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci levels to identify potential reversal points in a bearish trend. Specifically, the strategy looks for RSI entering oversold territory (30 or below), a bullish MACD crossover, and price approaching key Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 61.8%) as a confluence for potential short-term bounces. Given the recent drop to 0.0985 and a tentative RSI rebound, a strategic long entry could be justified at the 0.1005–0.1010 range if the RSI remains above 30 and the MACD continues to show positive divergence. Traders may set a stop-loss below 0.0993 and a profit target around 0.1025 based on Fibonacci and previous resistance levels.