Market Overview for Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) - 24-Hour Analysis

• Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) declined 10.9% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.1182 after a failed rally to 0.1325.
• Volatility remained elevated, with a range of 0.1325–0.1135 and a peak in turnover between 18:00 and 19:00 ET.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at the 18:00–19:00 ET session, confirming a sharp reversal after a brief bull breakout.
• RSI (14) dropped into oversold territory (30), suggesting potential near-term support at 0.1150–0.1160.
• Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion, with price currently near the lower band, signaling possible short-term bounce.

Opening and Price Action

At 12:00 ET–1, COOKIEUSDT opened at 0.1242 and reached a high of 0.1325 before closing at 0.1182 at 12:00 ET. The price declined 10.9% during the 24-hour period, with a low of 0.1135. Total trading volume was 10,297,475.0, while notional turnover was $1,224,629.65. The market experienced a sharp bearish reversal in the late afternoon and evening, leading to a significant pullback.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

The 18:00–19:00 ET session was a key turning point, forming a bearish engulfing pattern as price surged to 0.1325 and then collapsed below the open of 0.1287. This pattern suggests a strong shift in sentiment to the bearish side. Further, a doji appeared at 0.1263–0.1263 (23:45 ET) and 0.1241–0.1241 (01:45 ET), indicating indecision and potential support/resistance levels. Key resistance levels are found at 0.1265–0.1285, while 0.1150–0.1160 and 0.1175–0.1185 appear to be strong immediate support zones.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) remained bearish as price closed below both, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-period moving average currently stands at 0.1205, and the 20-period is at 0.1192. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA is near 0.1220 and the 200-day SMA at 0.1250, suggesting that the price is still trading below its longer-term averages, indicating bearish pressure.

MACD was negative throughout the 24-hour period, with the histogram showing a growing bearish divergence. RSI (14) dropped from 70 (bullish) to 30 (oversold), suggesting potential for a rebound. However, the bearish momentum remains intact, with volume confirming the bearish price action, especially during the late ET hours.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility was notably higher during the 18:00–19:45 ET timeframe, with price moving between 0.1264–0.1325 and then falling to 0.1135. The Bollinger Bands widened during this period, indicating increased uncertainty. At the close of the 24-hour window, the price is near the lower band, which may suggest that the asset is trading at an oversold level and could be poised for a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute chart, the 0.1325–0.1135 swing shows key levels at 0.1210 (61.8%), 0.1232 (50%), and 0.1252 (38.2%). The 0.1210 level is currently acting as a potential support zone. Daily Fibonacci levels also suggest a near-term pivot at 0.1180–0.1190, aligning with the current price range.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume remained elevated during the late afternoon and evening, with the highest volumes recorded between 18:00 and 19:15 ET. Notional turnover peaked at 0.1312–0.1325 before the sharp decline. However, during the 03:00–06:00 ET session, volume dropped significantly despite continued price depreciation, signaling a divergence that may indicate weak bearish conviction. This could be a warning sign that the downtrend may struggle to continue without stronger volume.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Consideration

Looking ahead, COOKIEUSDT may attempt to test support at 0.1150–0.1160 and 0.1175–0.1185. A close below 0.1150 would open the door to further declines toward 0.1100. However, a short-term bounce above 0.1185 could rekindle bullish momentum. Investors should be cautious of potential volatility spikes and watch for a retesting of key support levels for confirmation of trend direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves a breakout-based approach on the 15-minute chart, entering long on a close above the 0.1250 level and short on a close below 0.1200. Stop-loss levels would be set at 0.1235 for long positions and 0.1215 for shorts. Given the current price action and Fibonacci levels, a short-term long entry around 0.1185 with a target near 0.1220 could be tested. The bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI may support a retest of the 0.1200–0.1210 zone, which could validate the long-side entry. A trailing stop could be applied as momentum develops.