Market Overview for Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) as of 2025-09-22

• Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) declined 23.6% from 0.1348 high to 0.1122 close within 24 hours.
• Volatility surged early, with a 15-minute candle reaching 0.1364 before a sharp drop.
• Heavy selling pressure emerged after 02:45 ET, breaking below key support levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 06:00 ET, signaling increased market uncertainty.
• MACD turned negative and RSI dipped to oversold territory, hinting at possible short-term bounce.

Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) opened at 0.1348 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1122 by 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, with a daily high of 0.1364 and a low of 0.1122. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 7,122,995.8, with a notional turnover of approximately $914,604. A sharp downward move began late at night, accelerating between 02:45 and 06:15 ET, where the price dropped below key support levels and entered a volatile phase.

The structure of the 24-hour move shows multiple short-term resistance and support zones, with a key support at 0.1330 that failed around 05:30 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 02:45 ET, followed by a long bearish candle with a wick, indicating strong selling pressure. Multiple doji and spinning top candles appeared after the 06:00 ET break, hinting at indecision among traders.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price dropping below its 20-period and 50-period SMA after 03:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are likely aligned in a downward trend, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD turned negative, with a bearish crossover, and the RSI dipped below 30, entering oversold territory. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 06:00 ET, reflecting increased volatility and market uncertainty.

The price has spent much of the day trading near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with only brief attempts to retest the middle band around 09:45 and 11:45 ET. Volume and notional turnover surged during the early morning selloff but have since declined, suggesting a potential exhaustion in the short-term bearish momentum. The divergence between price and volume indicates a possible bounce back in the short term.

The Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 15-minute move from 0.1364 to 0.1122 suggest key retracement levels at 38.2% (0.1244) and 61.8% (0.1231) as potential short-term resistance. A retest of the 0.1230–0.1245 range may be expected if buyers show interest. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the previous larger move is near 0.1220, aligning with potential support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when the price closes below a key support level (e.g., 0.1330) and the RSI is above 50, indicating a false bullish signal. The strategy could aim to exit when the RSI dips below 30 or when the price breaks back above the 20-period SMA. Alternatively, a long setup could target a bounce from the 38.2% Fibonacci level (0.1244) when the MACD turns bullish and volume increases. This approach would require testing on historical data to validate its effectiveness in similar volatility and momentum conditions.