Market Overview for Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) – 2025-09-14

• Cookie DAO/Tether declined sharply, breaking below key support into a new 24-hour low of 0.1315.
• Volume spiked during the early hours, with a 3.3M USDT turnover at the session’s low point.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while MACD confirmed bearish momentum with a deep negative divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expanded widely as volatility surged, with price closing near the lower band.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.1363 and 0.1330 appear critical for near-term support and potential bounce points.

Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) opened the 24-hour period on September 13 at 0.1428 and closed at 0.1351, recording a 5.38% drop. The price swung between a high of 0.1436 and a low of 0.1315, marking one of its most volatile 24-hour moves in recent history. Total traded volume reached 10.07M tokens, with notional turnover hitting $1.34M.

Over the past 24 hours, the market exhibited a clear bearish bias, marked by a breakdown below multiple support levels and a surge in selling pressure. On the 15-minute chart, key moving averages (20 and 50-period) were decisively crossed lower, reinforcing the downward drift. The RSI has fallen to 26, indicating oversold conditions, but without a strong reversal, the pair may remain vulnerable to further declines. Meanwhile, the MACD line has turned sharply negative, with a bearish crossover and no sign of bullish momentum in the near term.

Bollinger Bands have expanded dramatically as volatility surged, with price spending much of the session near or below the lower band. This suggests a period of risk-on selling pressure or profit-taking, likely driven by short-term traders capitalizing on the downward trend. On the volume profile, the heaviest turnover occurred between 04:15 and 05:45 ET, with a single candle (04:15 ET) printing 1.06M USDT in turnover and a high of 0.1380. However, this failed to spark a bounce, and the price continued its descent.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key 0.1436–0.1315 swing show 0.1363 as the 23.6% level and 0.1330 as the 38.2% level. Both could serve as potential short-term turning points if buyers show up. A break below 0.1315 might trigger deeper bearish moves toward 0.1290. The 50-period moving average is currently at 0.1383, acting as a dynamic resistance level that could become a critical battleground if the price attempts to retest it from below.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests a short-term mean-reversion approach triggered when the RSI dips below 30 and the price closes near the lower Bollinger Band, with confirmation from the 20-period moving average crossing below the 50-period. Given today’s move into oversold territory and the price resting near the lower band, this setup appears to align with the strategy’s entry criteria. However, the lack of a bullish reversal pattern or a positive MACD divergence implies that a bounce may be weak or short-lived. Traders using this strategy should closely monitor volume during any upward move, as confirmation of a sustainable bounce would require a surge in buying interest. The Fibonacci level at 0.1363 may offer a natural point to test the strategy’s exit rules.