Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether USDt (CVXUSDT)

• Price declined from 3.599 to 3.534 over 24 hours, ending near a potential support level.
• High volatility seen early in the session, followed by consolidation near the bottom.
• On-balance volume shifted toward selling pressure after 17:30 ET.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed at the close, signaling possible expansion in the next 24 hours.

The Convex Finance/Tether USDt (CVXUSDT) pair opened at $3.591 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $3.599, and fell to a low of $3.48 before closing at $3.534 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 88,388.23, while total notional turnover was approximately $312,631. The price action was bearish with a clear breakdown below key levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a distinct bearish engulfing pattern around 17:30 ET as the candle opened at 3.585 and closed at 3.549 — a 0.93% decline. This signaled a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. A bearish flag formation emerged following the initial breakdown, with price consolidating within a narrowing range between 3.527 and 3.554 before closing near the lower end. The 3.53–3.54 range appears to be a key short-term support level that could provide a floor for near-term buyers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key swing lows between 3.54 and 3.55, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is bearish and well below the 200-period line, suggesting a medium-term downtrend is in place. This supports the view that buyers may struggle to push above the 3.55–3.56 level in the near term without significant volume.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached an oversold level of around 30 by the close, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD remained bearish, with the line staying below the signal line and both trending downward. This suggests that while a minor rebound is possible, the broader momentum remains bearish. A strong close above 3.56 could see RSI and MACD turn bullish on shorter timeframes.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were in a state of contraction by the end of the session, with price closing near the lower band at 3.534. This tight range suggests that volatility is likely to expand in the coming 24 hours, either through a break below the 3.52 level or a sharp rebound above the 3.56 resistance. The narrowing bands may also signal a potential consolidation phase ahead, followed by a directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early hours of the session, with the largest 15-minute volume spike occurring at 19:30 ET (3.527 close) with 10,517.269 units traded. The increase in volume was not matched by a proportional rise in turnover, indicating weak buying interest at the lower end of the range. This divergence suggests that sellers remained in control, and while the price found a short-term floor, a lack of strong buying pressure could lead to further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 3.599 to 3.48 shows that the 61.8% level is currently at 3.530, closely aligning with the final close. This suggests the price may be finding support at this level. If the price breaks below 3.527, the next major Fibonacci level to watch is 3.52 (38.2% retracement). These levels can act as psychological and technical markers for short-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy focuses on identifying key Fibonacci retracement levels and using them in conjunction with volume spikes and RSI readings to generate trade signals. The strategy would enter a long position when price rebounds off a 61.8% Fibonacci level and RSI moves above 30, with a stop-loss placed slightly below the 38.2% level. Alternatively, a short trade could be triggered on a break below 38.2% with confirmation from a bearish divergence in RSI and a spike in volume. Over the past 24 hours, these conditions have been partially met, particularly in the 3.53–3.56 range.