Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether USDt (CVXUSDT)

• Price tested key resistance near $3.48 before retreating to consolidate near $3.45.
• RSI and MACD suggest waning upward momentum, hinting at possible consolidation.
• Volatility expanded in early hours, followed by a steady decline toward session close.
• Volume surged in the 14:15–16:00 ET window, aligning with the breakout attempt.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the 3.48–3.46 range, signaling potential reversal.

Convex Finance/Tether USDt (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.453 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $3.482 during the 24-hour period. It closed at $3.449 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-06, with a low of $3.421. Total traded volume was 215,452.54 and notional turnover amounted to $743,923.30.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $3.48–3.46 around 14:15–15:30 ET, signaling potential near-term reversal after a sharp rally. A key support level appears to have formed around $3.44–3.45, where price consolidated for several hours. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier 3.421–3.482 move sits near $3.45, reinforcing the significance of this level. A potential breakout or breakdown from this range could trigger further directional movement.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed near $3.46 and $3.455, respectively, showing a flattening in short-term momentum. The 50-period SMA on the daily chart sits around $3.458, while the 200-period SMA is at $3.445, suggesting a narrowing gap and potential consolidation. Price appears to have found support at the 50-period SMA on the daily chart.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after peaking at $0.013, with the signal line crossing down through the histogram. RSI peaked near 58 during the 14:15–16:00 ET surge, suggesting the move was not overbought but lacked strong conviction. Current RSI stands at ~52, indicating a neutral momentum state. Divergence between price and RSI suggests caution ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded in the 14:00–16:00 ET window with a standard deviation of 0.023, indicating heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band at $3.449, suggesting that volatility is subsiding and a return to the mid-band is likely. The 15-minute bands have started to contract, a potential precursor to a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the 14:15–16:00 ET window, peaking at 20,819.983 with a turnover of $74,551.63, coinciding with the attempted breakout near $3.48. However, price failed to hold above this level, suggesting a lack of sustained bullish conviction. Volume has since tapered, aligning with the consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 3.421–3.482 move aligns with the 3.45 level, where the pair has found consistent support. The 38.2% level sits at $3.46 and may act as resistance if the asset retests it. The 23.6% level near $3.47 could also act as a psychological threshold, with a potential for bullish retests.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a breakout-based approach triggered by a close above the upper Bollinger Band or a RSI reading above 60, with a stop-loss at the 20-period SMA and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given today’s failed breakout attempt and the RSI not reaching overbought levels, this strategy would not have triggered a long signal. A short signal could have been considered if price broke below the 3.44–3.45 support zone, with a stop above the 3.455 level.