Market Overview: Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – Bullish Breakout Amid Rising Momentum

• Price surged 9.8% on 15-minute chart amid strong volume expansion in late AM ET session.
• RSI crossed 60 mid-day, suggesting rising momentum but not yet overbought.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price pushed through key resistance near 3.175.
• Volume spiked 45% during breakout, confirming bullish conviction.
• Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) closed 3.329, up from 3.047, on 280,400 volume and $928,500 turnover.

At 12:00 ET, Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.047 and surged to a 24-hour high of $3.355, closing at $3.329 at 12:00 ET the following day. The pair traded between $3.043 and $3.355, with a total volume of 280,400 and $928,500 in notional turnover. Price action suggests a strong breakout from key support/resistance clusters, particularly around the 3.175–3.206 range.

The structure of the 24-hour 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a textbook bullish reversal from a prior consolidation phase. A bullish engulfing pattern formed in the early hours of the morning, followed by a confirmed breakout above 3.175, which had previously acted as a strong resistance. A doji near 3.154 suggested indecision before the bullish move resumed. Key support levels now appear at 3.284 and 3.279, while resistance remains at 3.301–3.305 and above 3.356.

Moving averages suggest a clear uptrend: the 20-period and 50-period lines on the 15-minute chart are both bullish, with price above both. On the daily chart, price remains above the 50, 100, and 200-period lines, indicating a sustained bullish bias. MACD turned positive around 05:00 ET, with a clear histogram divergence, while RSI reached a peak of 63.8 at 09:00 ET, showing strong but not yet overbought momentum.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout, with the price closing near the upper band, indicating increased volatility and bullish conviction. Convex Finance/Tether closed 3.329, 9.6% above the 12:00 ET–1 open. The 20-period Bollinger Band width suggests a potential for further consolidation or a pullback toward the mid-band at ~3.317, though the current momentum appears to favor continuation.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent bullish swing (3.043–3.355) suggest key psychological levels to watch. The 61.8% retracement sits at ~3.247, which has already been tested and rejected twice. A failure to hold above this level could trigger a retest of the 3.175–3.154 range. On the upside, the 161.8% extension is at ~3.541, though reaching this level would require a continuation of the current bullish trend and sustained volume.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish engulfing pattern and the breakout above a key resistance level, a backtest strategy could focus on a long entry at 3.176 with a stop loss placed below 3.154. A take profit could be set at the next resistance zone around 3.206 or the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 3.247. This setup aligns with the observed momentum in RSI and MACD, as well as volume confirmation during the breakout. A trailing stop could also be considered as the price continues to rise above the upper Bollinger Band, with a target of 3.355 as the initial resistance was tested. This approach would seek to capitalize on the breakout while managing risk with defined levels.