Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined sharply after early bullish momentum, closing at a 24-hour low near 1.871.
• High volatility and volume surges suggest strong intraday activity and potential reversal signals.
• Oversold RSI conditions emerged as price dropped below key support levels.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at 1.953 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.988, and closed at 1.871 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06. The total 24-hour volume was 528,441.44, and notional turnover amounted to 978,922.19 USDT. The pair displayed a strong bearish bias, with price testing multiple support levels before finding a temporary floor in the 1.87–1.88 range.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern after an early attempt to rally past 1.98. The 1.95–1.96 range acted as key resistance, while a descending wedge on the 15-minute chart confirmed the bearish bias. A doji near 1.877–1.881 suggested indecision and potential for a bounce. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ~1.883 also aligned with the area, reinforcing the significance of this support cluster.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed well below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum. For daily charts, the 50- and 200-day SMAs are not available, but the 100-day appears to be bearish for the prior week. Price remains below all major moving averages, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong reversal develops.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the morning and has remained negative, confirming bearish momentum. RSI reached oversold territory (~25) in the late evening session, hinting at potential short-term bounces. However, RSI remains below 50, and the divergence between price and RSI suggests that the bearish trend is intact and not yet exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Price collapsed into the lower Bollinger Band in the final hours of the 24-hour period, indicating extreme bearish pressure and low volatility. The 20-period Bollinger Band width showed a contraction after the initial volatility spike, suggesting that a breakout could be due. Traders should monitor if price remains within this narrow range or if a reversal breaks the lower band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late evening session as price broke below 1.90 and continued declining toward 1.871. The highest volume candle was at 20:30 ET (1.983–1.97), confirming the initial breakdown attempt. However, the large volume during the late drop did not translate to a proportional price move, indicating possible order-book imbalances or short-term profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 1.871 close aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.871–1.983 swing. This level could act as a near-term support. A break below this would target the next 78.6% level near 1.855–1.860. On daily charts, the 61.8% retracement of the recent 1.817–1.983 move sits at ~1.870, reinforcing the importance of this level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup and RSI entering oversold territory, a potential RSI-based backtest strategy could look for long entries when RSI dips below 30 and closes above it, with stops placed below the last swing low. This approach would aim to capture potential short-term bounces. However, due to the ongoing bearish momentum and price below key moving averages, this strategy may need to be combined with a filter (e.g., volume confirmation or a bullish candlestick pattern) to reduce false signals. Testing on a similar high-volume, high-volatility pair like BTC/USDT could validate the strategy logic before applying it to CVX/USDT.

Looking ahead, a test of the 1.870–1.880 range will be key to determine whether the selloff is exhausted or if further downside is likely. A failure to hold this level could trigger renewed bearish momentum toward 1.840–1.850. Investors should also monitor order flow and volume for signs of reversal or continuation. As always, volatility remains high, and rapid price swings are a risk to consider for the next 24 hours.