Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT)

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• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $3.98 before retreating to close near $3.819.
• Strong volume spikes observed during the bullish breakout and subsequent pullback.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions during the peak, followed by bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during the rally, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly.
• Key support near $3.762 and resistance at $3.85–$3.90 highlighted by recent price action.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.818 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.819 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $3.98 and a low of $3.762 over the 24-hour period. Total traded volume was approximately 231,800 units, with total turnover of roughly $875,700.

The candlestick formation over the past 24 hours reveals a strong bullish breakout early in the session, followed by a consolidation phase and a pullback toward key support levels. The price surged from a base near $3.81 and reached a peak above $3.98 before retracing, forming a bearish continuation pattern. Notable candlestick formations include a strong green candle near the peak and a series of red candles indicating bearish momentum during the pullback. A doji near $3.879 suggests indecision and potential reversal in the short term.

Structure & Formations

Support levels at $3.762 (initial bounce), $3.812 (retest point), and $3.85 (bearish re-entry) have shown strong resistance during pullbacks. Resistance levels at $3.85–$3.90 are showing signs of weakening, as price failed to maintain a close above $3.90 after the breakout. The price action suggests a high-probability retest of the $3.85 level before either finding a new equilibrium or resuming the bullish trend.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a bullish bias during the peak rally but have since crossed into bearish territory. The MACD line turned negative after the breakout, confirming the bearish shift, while the histogram shows a shrinking bullish momentum. The RSI spiked to overbought levels (above 70) during the peak and has since declined, suggesting oversold conditions are unlikely in the immediate term.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout phase, reflecting heightened volatility. Price is now trading near the middle band, indicating a neutral position with potential to either trend higher or retest the lower band.

Volume & Turnover, Fibonacci & Bollinger Band Context

Volume spiked during the breakout phase, confirming the move to higher levels, while the pullback was also supported by strong volume, indicating conviction in bearish momentum. The $3.98 peak corresponds to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior bearish leg, suggesting a strategic level for potential reversal. Bollinger Bands currently suggest a contraction is forming, which could precede a breakout or breakdown in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around key Fibonacci levels and moving average crossovers. Given the recent breakout and subsequent pullback, a potential long entry could be triggered near the 61.8% retracement level ($3.98) on a bullish confirmation (e.g., close above moving averages or a bullish engulfing pattern). A short position may be considered on a break of $3.812 with a stop above $3.85, aligning with the bearish MACD and RSI divergence. The combination of volume spikes and Fibonacci retracements provides a probabilistic edge for directional bias.