Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT)

• Price declined from $3.608 to $3.478 amid uneven volume, forming bearish inside and hanging man patterns.
• Volatility expanded late in the session as price broke below key support at $3.550, confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence.
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction earlier, followed by sharp expansion, suggesting a potential directional breakout.

• Notional turnover surged in early ET with a divergence to price action, hinting at fading bullish sentiment.
• Key Fibonacci retracements at 3.500 and 3.530 levels appear to have failed to hold, increasing bearish momentum.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.595 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at $3.478 (12:00 ET) after a volatile 24-hour period, with a high of $3.608 and low of $3.459. Total volume reached 101,403.17, and notional turnover amounted to $364,335.76.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed several bearish signals, including a hanging man pattern at the high of $3.608 and an inside bar at $3.580–3.590. A key support level at $3.550 was broken with confirmation by volume and RSI divergence. A doji formed at $3.560, suggesting indecision near critical retracement levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at $3.520 remains above the 200-period MA, suggesting a bearish bias in the short to medium term.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the final hours of the session, with the histogram trending lower. RSI dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, though without a clear rebound, it may suggest further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted around $3.560–3.570 early in the session before expanding sharply as price broke below the lower band near $3.540. This suggests a potential bearish continuation or reversal from consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked early in the morning (ET) during the break below $3.550, but later declined despite the lower price levels. Notional turnover surged from $3.519 to $3.484 during the final hours, suggesting a lack of conviction from longs.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels at 38.2% (~$3.566) and 61.8% (~$3.523) failed to hold, reinforcing bearish momentum. A breakdown below $3.484 could target the next Fibonacci level at ~$3.459, with a stop-loss suggestion near $3.500 for short-term bearish setups.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a confirmed break below a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8%) and a bearish MACD crossover. Stops could be placed just above the recent high of $3.550, with a target at the next Fibonacci level. Given the divergence in volume and RSI, this setup appears valid for a 1–4 hour time frame, though confirmation with additional candlestick signals would improve accuracy.