Market Overview: Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price dropped 5.5% over 24 hours, forming bearish patterns and breaking key support levels.
• Momentum weakened, with RSI hitting oversold territory below 30 and MACD in bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded, as seen in wide-ranging candles and Bollinger Band expansion.
• Turnover increased during the bounce, suggesting potential short-term accumulation.

At 12:00 ET–1, Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.179, reached a high of $3.194, and closed at $3.040 by 12:00 ET, marking a 5.5% decline. Total volume for the period stood at 606,324.189 CVX, with a notional turnover of $1,826,503. The price action reflected bearish exhaustion and a potential near-term bottoming process.

Structure & Formations
The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a sharp decline, with multiple bearish formations such as a large bearish engulfing pattern from 17:15 to 17:30 ET and a long lower shadow at the session’s low. Key support levels appear to be near $3.000 and $2.985, while $3.050 and $3.070 could act as near-term resistance. A doji formed at 04:45 ET, indicating indecision after the sharp drop.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, price remains below the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI
The RSI has dropped to 28, indicating oversold conditions, but without a strong price bounce to confirm a reversal. MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands
The price has remained near the lower band for much of the session, reflecting high volatility and potential short-term overselling. A retest of the lower band is likely before any meaningful rebound.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged during the price drop, particularly between 18:00 and 19:00 ET, confirming the bearish move. Turnover also spiked during the rebound phase (02:00–04:00 ET), suggesting accumulation by buyers. However, the volume failed to confirm a strong reversal, indicating mixed sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements
From the recent swing high of $3.194 to the low of $3.085, key retracement levels are at $3.139 (38.2%) and $3.106 (61.8%). A potential short-term rebound may face resistance at $3.106 before testing the $3.139 level.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy based on the oversold RSI (<30) and MACD bearish crossover during the last 24 hours may trigger a short-term buying signal. This would align with the observed volume surge during the rebound phase, suggesting accumulation by nimble traders. A bullish divergence in RSI and a close above the 15-minute 20 MA could validate the short-term bottom and confirm a mean reversion trade.