Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis

• CVXUSDT fell 14.6% over the last 24 hours amid rising volatility and bearish momentum.• Key support around 3.74–3.75 appears tested, while resistance remains at 3.86–3.87.• High volume spikes coincided with sharp declines, signaling potential capitulation.• RSI shows oversold conditions, suggesting short-term rebound potential.• MACD divergence and a bearish engulfing pattern signal ongoing downward bias.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.845 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.785 the following day at the same time. The 24-hour range was between $3.731 (low) and $3.919 (high). Total volume reached 238,908.91, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $902,715. A sharp selloff unfolded after the initial highs, culminating in a bearish close.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours displayed a bearish bias, with several key formations emerging. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $3.88–3.89, confirming a shift in momentum to the downside. A long lower shadow on the 02:30 ET candle suggests rejection of lower levels. A doji at $3.77–3.78 indicates indecision around that zone. Key support appears at $3.74–3.75, where a bounce from the morning selloff occurred.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price closing below the 20- and 50-period SMAs, with the 20SMA rapidly descending. Daily data suggests the price is below the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing a longer-term bearish bias. The 50–20 SMA crossover on the 15-minute timeframe has remained negative, indicating continued pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the decline, confirming a bearish trend. The histogram has remained negative and has begun to narrow, potentially hinting at a slowdown in the selloff. RSI stands at ~28, entering oversold territory, which historically may trigger short-term rebounds. However, a divergence in the MACD suggests that the oversold reading may not lead to a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening. Price tested the lower band at $3.74–3.75 twice, suggesting potential support. A contraction is not yet visible, but if it emerges, it could signal a consolidation phase. The current placement inside the lower band reinforces the bearish narrative.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply between 03:30 ET and 06:00 ET, coinciding with the most significant price drop. Notional turnover also increased during this window, confirming the move lower. The divergence between the final lower-volume candles and the price suggests the selloff may be losing steam. However, the high volume during the decline indicates conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $3.919 to $3.731, key retracement levels at 38.2% (~$3.806) and 61.8% (~$3.774) have been tested. The 61.8% level held during a brief rebound, suggesting its significance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a larger move could provide near-term support if the broader trend continues to deteriorate.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy in question focuses on identifying oversold RSI levels (RSI < 30) combined with a bullish divergence in the MACD histogram. This approach would signal potential short-term bounces in an otherwise bearish trend. Given today’s RSI at ~28 and a narrowing MACD histogram, a trader using this strategy might consider a small long position near $3.75–3.76, with a stop-loss just below the 3.73 level and a target near 3.79–3.80. The recent volume profile suggests such a trade could be speculative, with higher risk during volatile sessions.